We are uniting Republicans in Arizona and have a clear path to victory. The Senate Majority runs through Arizona.
Kari Lake (R-AZ)
Eight months until Election Day, and Republicans are nervous. The presidency is Trump or Bust, and – despite a 2.1 point lead on the RCP Generic Congressional ballot – abortion and Trump’s trials could give a closely divided House back to the Democrats. All is not lost, because the GOP should re-take the US Senate.
My poll of poll shows the GOP comfortably holding its 11 contested senate seats and easily winning West Virginia’s open seat, creating at least a 50-50 tie. In contrast, Democrats must defend 23 seats (includes 2 liberal independents), with comfortable leads in only 10 races. The consensus forecast for the 2024 election is:
- 53 REP
- 45 DEM
- 2 IND
The majority could be even bigger. Biden’s despotic behavior and anti-Trump lawfare have turned Trump supporters into Trump defenders. Plus, GOP candidates are learning to coexist with the former president without angering swing voters. A good case study is Kari Lake, whose Arizona senate campaign just received the endorsement of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).
When I last reported on Lake, she had Trumped her way to a 17,000 vote loss in Arizona’s 2022 gubernatorial race – to a Democrat nobody, who refused to debate. Suffice it to note that moderating her positions and tone must be working, because her Democrat rival told Politico, “polling has us down 6 points to MAGA-extremist Kari Lake, and we’re pacing behind on our fundraising goals.”
Lake’s “outsider” gubernatorial campaign hired Gen-Z Trumpers, avoided polling firms, and alienated donors. She lost 55% of college graduates and Independents by talking non-stop about election conspiracies. She has since gone to charm school to earn the support of party leaders, like senators Barrasso (WY) and Rubio (FL). Today, with the NRSC endorsement, she is the presumptive GOP nominee.
Politico reports her campaign’s now attracting talent and funding. At the NRSC’s winter meeting in Florida, she “impressed” influential senators and donors. Said one: “she was not at all like the caricature that’s painted of her in the media.” Guess what? Lake’s Washington fundraiser will be hosted by the NRSC, and she’s campaigning in Arizona with GOP Conference Chair Barrasso at her side.
NRSC chair Steve Daines says Lake is “one of the most talented candidates in the country; building out an effective campaign operation that has what it takes to flip Arizona’s Senate seat in November.” With Trump up by 5.4 points in Arizona over Biden, and Gallego (D) barely leading incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (I), Lake’s race is a toss-up (source: Cook Political Report).
Kari Lake is the poster gal for the New Republican Party – a synthesis of populism and professionalism – where old dog Ron Johnson (WI) puts America first, malcontent Mitt Romney (UT) gets out of the way, new dog Ron DeSantis (FL) out-electioneers Democrats, and mega-MAGA Lake drops the personal attacks on “establishment” Republicans.
This “new” party will support Trump’s policies (ex. Remain in Mexico), explain Trump’s positions (ex. he wants NATO members to match US troops and treasure, not get attacked by Russia), and ignore Trump’s attention-grabbing social media. With Republicans – of every lean – getting it together, GOP senate candidates should retake multiple seats.
Governor Jim Justice is up 36 in West Virginia, former governor Larry Hogan is tied in Maryland, businessman Tim Sheehy is tied in Montana, and businessman Dave McCormick is down 4 in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, four Democrat incumbents are in tight races against the GOP field: Sherrod Brown (up 1) in Ohio, Tammy Baldwin (up 1) in Wisconsin, Jacky Rosen (up 1) in Nevada, and Elissa Slotkin (tied) in Michigan.
If Trump’s swing-state leads are real, 2024 will look a lot like 1980, when Republicans picked up 12 Senate seats by endorsing Reagan’s policies and campaigning against Jimmy Carter’s “miserable” America. This is how Larry Hogan will win Maryland; agree with 80% of MAGA positions, avoid Trump, and criticize Biden. Don’t look now, but the GOP is getting its act together.
If you want to track the GOP’s 2024 senate prospects, follow Arizona’s polling averages. Right now, favorability ratings for President Biden and Governor Hobbs are under 40% (source: Data Orbital). Unpopular Democrats and immigration anger help Lake. If she’s become a better electioneer, the senate race is hers to lose. And, if she wins, the US Senate is a GOP lock.
