While Ms. Haley and the media focus relentlessly—with reason—on Mr. Trump’s many significant character failings, polls indicate that voters care more about the current administration’s governing failings.
Gerard Baker (Wall Street Journal)
Anyone who’s ever led an endeavor that attracts criticism appreciates loyalty, which uplifts a leader in the morning and reassures at night. So, why wouldn’t Trump – America’s most criticized politician ever – seek loyalty? None really, except Democrats and their media allies portray his quest for loyalty as evidence of an anti-democracy cult.
Trump does, of course, have blind loyalists, but so did Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. That’s politics. The difference is that Trump holds adoration rallies and says stuff like “I could shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters” (campaign volunteer Brandon Fokkema admitted to NPR that Trump “could’ve worded it a little bit better”). Is it even possible that anyone else could complicate the GOP more than Trump?
On the plus side, Trump’s running against a snarky 81-year-old, whom 65% of voters blame for high prices and immigration, and whose “woke” positions on climate and energy, race, and transgenders are rejected by 70% of Americans. Further, even liberal media have reported his serial lying (Hunter’s laptop was real, and Joe did talk business with Hunter and meet his business associates). Such a president is vulnerable, even against Trump.
Senate minority whip John Thune (R-SD) has endorsed him, and Jeb Bush just denounced the New York fraud judgment against him (source: Fox News). And Trump won 74 million votes in 2020, and is running away with the GOP nomination. Do those names and numbers look like a cult? No, and the numbers back this up.
Today’s RCP betting averages – historically more accurate than polls – have Trump at 44.2%, Biden at 27.8%, and Michelle Obama at 9%. Trump also leads Biden by 2 points in the RCP polling average. However, the big news came from the latest Harvard-Harris poll: Trump at 53% and Biden at 47%. And, Trump (42%) finally overtook Biden (39%) with Independents. Such numbers dispel the left’s “MAGA cult” conjecture, but Trump is no shoo-in.
The US jobless rate remains below 4%, inflation has moderated, stock indices are up, and US GDP growth is forecast at 1.8% in 2024 (source: Bank of America). That’s not the “misery index” that ousted Jimmy Carter in 1980 (and Trump’s no Reagan). Pile on the stench of January 6, constant court appearances, lots of bad press, six years of underperforming MAGA candidates – and Biden’s minus-15 approval rating is not insurmountable.
The simple truths are the economy mostly helps Biden and the daily headlines mostly hurt Trump, who has yet to unite his own party. Take his legal woes: his ardent base believes Democrat lawfare against Trump is 100% baseless, while establishment Republicans think Trump’s behavior (in part) invited the indictments. GOP strategist Dan Judy told The Hill that “a felony conviction would be a bridge too far” because Trump would lose 10% of Republicans. What galls me is Trump is not doing everything necessary to win.
A little politesse – not calling opponents “vermin” or comparing himself to Al Capone – wouldn’t alienate his base, but it would deny clickbait and headlines to Trump’s media enemies. Many college-educated Independents (who venture outside Fox News) view Trump’s laugh lines as evidence of a character flaw. In 2020, this cost him 55% of white college-educated women and 54% of Independents (source: CNN exit polls).
Those are the voters he lost in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, that he cannot afford to lose again. Those are the 40% of the GOP that Trump has not won in multiple primaries. Nikki Haley is right – “those aren’t insignificant numbers” – and the primaries are exposing Trump’s problem; he’s polling higher than he’s vote-getting.
In Iowa, a 34-point polling margin became a 29-point win. In New Hampshire, an 18-point margin became an 11-point win. In South Carolina, a 28-point margin became a 20-point win. In Michigan, a 50-point margin became a 42-point win (source: MSNBC). Trouble ahead? Sure, because Reuters reported last year that Democrats were telling pollsters “Trump” to ensure Biden faced a man no liberal believes the US electorate will vote into office.
No joke, if Democrats could game the 2020 election to put Biden into office, why wouldn’t they game the polls to keep Biden in office in 2024? So, when Trump is basking in confetti at the Republican convention, let’s hope he’s standing with VP nominee Nikki Haley or Tulsi Gabbard, who can win women and the college-educated. It seems so obvious – which probably means Trump will pick Marjorie Taylor Greene.
