We know how to win. We’ve done this before. We have a great opportunity to expand the House, playing offense against some of their members. If we listened to conventional wisdom, Trump would not be in office.
James Blair (Trump 2024 Political Director)
MAGA’s $568 million says Democrats are in trouble. History begs to differ.
Two years after a president is elected, his party is supposed to lose on average 21 House seats. Dating back to the 1912 midterms, the incumbent president’s party has added seats in only three of twenty-eight elections – and never more than ten seats. Those were in the New Deal realignment of 1934, post-impeachment midterm of 1998, and post-911 midterm of 2002. So, what made voters loyal to the incumbent’s party?
The simple answer is GDP in 1934 (up 10.8%) and 1998 (up 4.5%), and war in 2002. The complex answer is process (i.e. election laws and how parties use them) and substance (i.e. the voters’ will). And, despite the Founders wanting elections to reflect the will of the people, today’s mid-terms are increasingly decided by process (e.g. turn-out). With that in mind, how’s 2026 shaping up for Republicans?
Democrats Losing Ground on Process
Election Integrity – The SAVE Act is a big deal, because requiring citizenship and photo ID to vote makes it a lot harder to “harvest” votes. Imagine that employee at the Father Murray Nursing Home (MI) in 2020 forging two dozen signatures AND getting 24 photo IDs and birth certificates. Hard to do, and after it becomes a felony, how many election officials will knowingly register a voter who can’t provide physical documentary proof of citizenship? Not enough to game Arizona’s or Nevada’s elections.
Inside the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, Harmeet Dhillon is focused on “securing the ballot” by investigating state-level voter registration data – suing 30 states and DC – to ensure lists are updated (no dead voters) and non-citizens are removed. She’s investigating the 2020 and 2024 elections, making examples of Fulton (GA) and Wayne (MI) counties, and dropping the Biden DOJ’s litigation against election-integrity laws.
Getting Out the Vote – Until 2008, urban political machines and organized labor were no match for the GOP’s “Voter Vault” that turned out huge numbers of rural and exurban voters. The Obama campaign reversed this by merging community organizing principles with cutting-edge technology; thereby gaining the “ground game” advantage that held at least through 2022 (nothing like offering college kids beer, pizza, and a bus to the polls). Yes, this worked in 2025, but Democrat turn-out should ebb in 2026.
First, the SAVE Act will affect mail-in ballots, which Democrats counted on for 22.5 million votes in 2022 (note: this “voting preference” is already being challenged by the DOJ). 50 years ago, Europeans found mail-in ballots invited election shenanigans, so the GOP won’t give in on this. And, once voters and voting officials know Big Brother is watching, 33% of Democrat votes become a newfound hassle.
Two, the Supreme Court altered Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, immediately erasing up to four majority-minority districts, including Al Green’s (TX-18). The Congressional Black Caucus has gone postal, publicly exhorting black athletes to boycott SEC schools to punish their “racist” host states. How does Al Green’s absence affect black turn-out in a tight Texas senate race, and how do black families in rural America react to Democrats pressuring elite black athletes to pass on rich SEC pay-outs?
Money – In 2024, Harris-Walz outspent Trump-Vance $1.2 billion to $420 million, and still lost by 2.2 million popular votes (source: Forbes). Today, the GOP money advantage (in all coffers) is $482 million, primarily because pro-Trump PACs have amassed $304 million. Money is still there for Democrats, but Harris 2024 broke the DNC, leaving thousands of primary campaigns responsible for drumming up cash (in this instance, having “no middle man” is less efficient).
GOP Has Substance Advantage
80-20 Issues – Democrats are on the wrong side of issues that matter to everyday Americans; i.e. controlling the border, eliminating entitlements fraud, jailing violent criminals, keeping boys out of girls’ sports, merit-based advancement, reducing taxes, and requiring voter ID. A quick look at credible polling of voter sentiment:
- 74% support closing the U.S. border (source: Harvard CAPS/Harris)
- 89% want entitlements fraud eliminated (source: Cato Institute)
- 85% want violent criminals imprisoned (source: Pew Research)
- 69% oppose boys competing in girls’ sports (source: Gallup)
- 74% support merit-based hiring (source: Pew Research)
- 70% support merit-based admissions (source: Gallup)
- 59% believe their taxes are “too high” (source: Gallup)
- 83% support government-issued photo ID requirements to vote (source: Pew Research)
It’s suicidal to reject the “populism” of Andrew Jackson and Franklin Roosevelt, when that’s the foundation of the Democrat Party, and to ignore the “common man” who allowed Bill Clinton to rescue his party in 1992. The party’s current iteration is un-sustainable, and the primary win rate for Democratic Socialists this year is hovering around 60% (source: DSA). That only helps the “Trump effect” to siphon off Catholics, married moms, and working-class men, making Democrats even more unelectable.
Blue City Disasters – Keep an eye on Los Angeles and New York City, where grossly incompetent mayors could turn blue cities purple. Did you know Karen Bass (LA) was a community organizer for the SDS in the 1970s, and Zohran Mamdani (NYC) told the 2021 Young Democratic Socialists of America conference that their ultimate goal was “collectively owning key economic drivers” and “seizing the means of production” nationwide? With the examples of Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela – the absolute lowest cash-income populations in the world – it’s reckless to sell “communism” and “socialism” as pathways to prosperity.
Out of 206 nations with tracked median individual incomes, Cuba ranked #205, North Korea #204, and Venezuela #206 in 2025 (source: ILO and OECD). Pathetic, and China’s no panacea; its Great Leap Forward left (at least) 30 million dead, forcing Deng Xiaoping to adopt free-market capitalist principles to lift China’s GDP from $191.1 billion in 1980 to $19.7 trillion last year (source: The World Bank). Maybe not this year, but LA and New York will learn soon enough that Dallas and Nashville are thriving because they do NOT over-tax the wealthy.
The Trump Factor
One cannot run against TBD (Trump’s Behavioral Dysfunction) forever, and Democrats should have pivoted to the middle in January 2025. When the “smartest guy in the room” club – America’s tech billionaires – was at Trump’s inaugural events…well…there’s your sign that common-sense policies and positions are the only pathway to peace and prosperity. No joke, and most voters – after ten years – have learned to separate what Trump says (often bad) from what he does (often good). Consider this 2024 exit-poll data:
- 55% of married moms voted for Trump
- 65% of childless single women voted for Harris
My theory of the case (work with me here) is that married moms (1) learn to ignore what petulant children and boastful husbands say, and (2) don’t share that “lived experience” with childless single women. Don’t scoff until you spend an afternoon looking at what child-free single gals post on social media (worse than galactically immature 16-year-old me).
Democrats are counting on voters thinking Trump is forever…that 2028 is not just around the corner…because, absent the stench of Trump’s behavior, they don’t have much on which to run.