Despite the pandemic, citizens were still individuals imbued with individual rights and independent moral standing. This is how most people see themselves in a modern society – as free autonomous beings rather than as laboratory rats in a series of social science experiments.
Arthur Herman (fellow at Hudson Institute)
If you doubt the GOP sweeps this year’s midterms, or worry about Trump being the nominee in 2024, you should read Arthur Herman’s editorial in Monday’s Wall Street Journal. In short, he equates what the “Great Recession” did for Democrats in 1932 (wave election) to what today’s “Great Confinement” can do for Republicans in 2022 and 2024.
The GOP is on the cusp of sweeping into control of Congress in 2022 and retaking the presidency in 2024. As we learned in Virginia last November, Forgotten Americans still turn out to vote without Trump on the ballot, because they’re primarily self-serving voters – not a cult. They will dovetail in 2022 with COVID-weary centrists to form a Say No To Joe voting bloc. This is not new: successive generations have tired of failed Democrats before.
In 1952, victorious and confident veterans (the “greatest” generation) rejected FDR collectivism. In 1980, educated and independent boomers (the “me” generation) rejected Johnson-Carter defeatism. Right now, first-home buyers and parents (the ”millennial” generation) are growing cynical of Biden far-left absolutism. It’s not hard too see how Eisenhower and Reagan are prologue to what comes next at the ballot box.
Eisenhower Stood for the Independent Pursuit of Happiness
The key issues in 1952 were communism, Korean War, and economic opportunity for veterans, who wanted the dignity of gainful jobs. Thus, Eisenhower was swept into office by “his” veterans (called “my general” by my dad). The greatest generation didn’t want MORE New Deal: they wanted autonomy. After depression and war, they wanted less government and more individual opportunity (to buy homes and start businesses).
The maps above depict Republicans winning BIG in 1952 (and 1956); gaining the presidency, 22 seats in the House, and 2 more Senate seats. This might have been a surprise after the GOP shellacking in 1948, but it was actually presaged in the 1950 mid-terms, when Republicans gained 28 House seats and 5 Senate seats. Yes, Eisenhower was better than twice-defeated Dewey. But, after 20 years, FDR Democrats looked old and in the way to millions of victorious – and confident – veterans.
Reagan Stood for Less (Incompetent) Government
The key issues in 1980 were runaway inflation, Iran hostage crisis, and Russian invasion of Afghanistan. Thus, Ronald Reagan was swept into office by baby boomers. We came of age after Vietnam, Watergate, and the Arab Oil Embargo, inheriting a “crisis of confidence” that Democrat Jimmy Carter made worse. The me generation didn’t want MORE Great Society entitlements: we wanted peace and prosperity – and Reagan promised “peace through strength” and “prosperity through less government.”
The maps above depict a complete repudiation of Democrat Carter in 1980 and complete affirmation of Republican Reagan in 1984. Republicans won big in 1980, gaining the presidency, 34 seats in the House, and 12 seats in the Senate. Again, there was a GOP shellacking in 1976, followed by harbinger gains in 1978 (15 House seats and 3 Senate seats). And, while Reagan was a great candidate, it was his message of ”less government” to a generation left cynical by years of ”bad government” that carried the day.
It’s the Millennials Turn to Reject Democrat Failure
My poll of polls indicates a dog with a note can wrest the ”coalition of the ascendant” from Biden and his party today. 61% of Hispanics blame Democrats for closed businesses and higher prices. 62% of millennials resent how vaccine promises and mask mandates fizzled. When 60% of Independents resent Biden’s “competence” boast, and 71% of Republicans aren’t sure Biden won fair and square, it sure looks like a GOP sweep.
Still, it is a “new” generation of self-interested voters that will seal the sorry fate of America’s liberal party. I am, of course, referring to concerned parents, struggling small-business owners, and fearful city dwellers. It’s the circle of life: millennials grow up fast when the party in charge screws up MY child’s school, limits diners in MY restaurant, or defunds police in MY community – and start thinking and voting like their parents.
