Today, the Democrats’ working-class problem isn’t limited to white workers. The party is also losing support from working-class Blacks and Hispanics—a daunting 12 points off their margin since 2016.
Stanley Greenberg (Yale academic and Democrat pollster)
I predict Joe Biden is going to wake up with a headache on November 9th, after the Mother Of All Wave Elections gives Republicans control of Congress. Gallup (poll above) found an unprecedented shift in party preference in 2021 – in too many voting blocs for Democrats to counter with a single Big Message. The Squad says Biden’s “too moderate.” James Carville says The Squad’s “too woke.” Whatever, the Democrat Caucus just warned 35 “vulnerable” reps – on top of 30 “retiring” reps. Here’s why.
Split-ticket Republicans come home. GOP enthusiasm is building, without Trump on the ballot and “compassionate conservatives” (college graduates, real-world entrepreneurs, and suburban women) sitting out. This is the Virginia 2021 lesson, where Youngkin outpolled Trump with MAGA voters and scored big with suburbanites (up 9 points) and college grads (up 7 points). While the Democrat (McAuliffe) promised I’m No Trump, Glenn Youngkin promised school choice, 10,000 start-ups, and safe neighborhoods. Bottom Line: the GOP base is strong.
The Democrat base fragments. AP/NORC reports Blacks, Hispanics, and women keyed Democrat wins in 2020, but fragmented in Virginia 2021, Latinos especially. CNN reports majorities of these groups now say the US government doesn’t “represent the view of people like myself” and pluralities say Biden’s doing a bad job: 41% of Blacks angry at the Biden economy, 52% of Hispanics dissing him on China and Russia, and 54% of women mad at him on COVID and crime. Bottom Line: the party is too divided on the issues to stem sagging enthusiasm.
Independent voters dump Biden and his party. CNN reports Independents favored Biden over Trump by 13 points (54% to 41%), but now 74% of them say the federal government doesn’t “represent the view of people like myself” and 64% disapprove of Biden (42% strongly). He’s underwater with them on the economy (-39%), crime (-25%), Russia (-24%), China (-19%), and COVID (-16%). These views can soften but not reverse in nine months. Bottom Line: this shift influenced 30 (and counting) House Democrats not to seek re-election in 2022.
The GOP won’t get fooled again. 52% of all voters think Democrats don’t “protect our democracy” and 71% of Republicans suspect chicanery in 2020. Moreover, 80% of Americans want voter-ID laws (source: Monmouth polling). The Brennan Center reports 27 states introduced voter-integrity laws after 2020. Virginia 2021 is predictive of Republican vigilance in 2022: they had “watchers” at 85% of early-polling centers, 90% of Election Day polls, and 100% of “targeted” ballot processing locations. Bottom Line: there will be less fog of war preventing open-and-honest elections in 2022.
Women are re-imaging conservatism. RNC chair Ronna McDaniel and House Caucus chair Elise Stefanik are rebuilding the party by recruiting record numbers of female candidates for 2022. As (presumptive) House speaker Kevin McCarthy says, “We’re going to have more women in the (GOP) Congress than in the history of Congress before.” Stefanik adds, “In just two years we have increased the number of Republican women in Congress to 35. Now, there are over 170 Republican women filed to run for Congress in 2022.” Bottom Line: the Old White Guy party is no more!
Minorities are re-making the Party of Lincoln. McDaniel has committed to “expanding coalitions – not just to win votes but to build authentic relations with all communities.” To wit, she’s all-in on Herschel Walker in Georgia for Senate and Monica de la Cruz in Texas for the House. As Virginia’s first black female lieutenant governor, Winsome Sears, put it on Election Night 2021, most non-whites are “Republicans who just don’t know it yet.” Bottom Line: identity politics will be less effective in 2022.
Americans are tired of the ”woke” BS. 90% of all Americans get married at some point in their lives, and 85% of all US women have a child (source: Statista). As Democrat strategist James Carville noted, social issues loom large in 2022, especially with black Christians, Hispanics, and white parents. Traditional “family” values polled well in Virginia 2021 and just ousted three ”woke” school board members in San Francisco. Bottom Line: married couples with kids like the GOP’s Parents Over Bureaucrats message.
Pay attention to Michigan’s gubernatorial race. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) is the poster gal for liberal-elite governors, and the leading Republican to challenge her is James Craig, who’s black and a former Detroit Police Chief. If the GOP win in Virginia 2021 was Lesson One (MAGA voters are not a Trump cult), Craig in Michigan 2022 is Lesson Two (talked his lifelong-Democrat dad into the GOP camp):
Dad, you are conservative, you’ve always been a conservative. You believe in law and order. You believe in small government. You believe we shouldn’t be excessively taxed. You believe in an entrepreneurial spirit, in the merit principle.
Forget what the crackpots on The View might say, because Democrats are locks in only 7 of 36 gubernatorial races, 10 of 34 senate races, and 157 of 435 house races – compared to GOP locks in 17 gubernatorial, 19 senate, and 195 house contests. Long odds for America’s liberal party, especially when Biden’s flops have disheartened his 2020 supporters, and Republican Big Tent conservatism has so many minorities and women as its face. Bottom Line: this is not 2020 and it sure isn’t 2018!
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