Economic concerns helped propel Trump to victory in the 2024 election, but voters have grown more negative on the president’s handling of the economy since he returned to the White House.
The Wall Street Journal (December 13th)
Don’t look now, but Donald Trump lacks the political punch he had a year ago because members of his own party don’t fear his threats. In Indiana last week, 21 Republicans in that state’s senate voted against his proposed redistricting map. In Washington this fall, a small group of GOP senators voted with Democrats to roll back some of his tariffs, and 20 Republicans in the House joined Democrats to overturn a presidential order. The message is clear; they don’t believe his coattails will help them in November 2026.
After reading the latest Cook Political Report, which gives the GOP only 204 “safe seats” in the House (and 200 for Democrats), can you blame them? Fox News can tout some “good polling” for Trump, but that’s no offset to high-profile Democrat wins in New Jersey’s and Virginia’s gubernatorial elections, or Miami’s and New York’s mayoral elections. Further, every elected Republican is aware of the drop in the President’s approval rating; from 50.2% in late January to 42.4% in late November (source: Real Clear Politics).
Republicans standing for re-election fear for their political lives. There is no “unflinching loyalty” to Trump in the GOP because the presidency is a fleeting position of influence, and “long-serving” members of Congress got that way by being self-serving politicians. If historical precedent holds true – the party in power has only held the House in two mid-term elections since 1932 – control of the House will flip to the (unworthy) Democrat Party in January 2027.
It won’t be an ideological realignment, because recent Gallup and Wall Street Journal polls found Democrat approval ratings at historic lows. It’s just the nature of voters, which Stanford University political scientist Morris Fiorina explained in Unstable Majorities: electorates have a bias toward reining in the political party in power. Especially swing voters, who are frustrated by the “mandate” today’s political parties always proclaim after winning control of Congress and the White House. Yes, it is a fact that the GOP won convincingly in 2024. But, it is also a fact that 2024 was a close election, compared to 1972 and 1984:
- 1972 – Nixon 60.7% to McGovern 37.5%
- 1984 – Reagan 58.8% to Mondale 40.6%
- 2024 – Trump 49.8% to Harris 48.3%
Yet, time and again, we’ve heard the Trump administration proclaim a mandate. That’s a thinking trap that alienates Democrats and Independents; whether it’s Karoline Leavitt presuming voter support for the entire Trump agenda, or Stephen Miller thinking CNN is the venue to focus on Trump’s activist base. If the GOP wants to win the 2026 mid-terms, they’d better pray voters are circumspect when Democrats blame Republicans for the multi-dimensional mess created by President Biden, Speaker of the House Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Schumer. Take the issue of immigration…
As a practical matter, the National Guard should be deployed to protect federal agents (DHS and ICE) in the line of duty, when Democrat governors and mayors allow pro-immigrant demonstrations to turn violent, as happened in Los Angeles. And, as a legal matter, the Department of Justice should investigate Medicaid fraud cases that involve significant numbers of Somali immigrants, as happened in Minnesota. In Trump’s defense, he swore an oath to uphold America’s laws (that Democrats choose to ignore). Do I have to note the illegal-alien masses and Somali fraud took place on Biden’s watch? You bet I do!
As a political matter, the optics of Guardsmen firing rubber bullets at protestors, and ICE agents forcing Latinos into handcuffs, plays into the left-liberal narrative of Trump being a “fascist” and America First being a “racist” movement. That goes double when Miller refers to Minnesota’s Somalis as a “dysfunctional society” and Trump refers to them as “garbage” that should “go back to where they came from and fix it”. To Trump’s discredit, he and Stephen Miller sound so mean to many women, who should vote Republican.
It’s too early to handicap the mid-term elections, because Mr. Trump has time and again exceeded expectations. But, it’s not too early to post a New Year’s wish: stop offending America’s Hispanic community, and start talking about a legal pathway to citizenship. It’s the principled thing to do because the vast majority of Latin American immigrants want to assimilate wholly into the United States; meaning get a job and a home, go to church and football games, learn to speak English, and respect western civilization (Europe should be so lucky).
It is also smart politics, because one-sixth of U.S citizens are Hispanic-American, who increasingly identify with the Republican Party (54% of Latinos voted for Trump in 2024). Moreover, there is “one degree of separation” in our nation’s Hispanic community, either through faith or family. It is folly to think 14.3 million illegal-alien Latinos are NOT attending mass in one of America’s 19,405 Catholic Churches, or that they are NOT family to (or friends with) 53.7 million US citizens that happen to be Hispanic.
Our nation will be better served if the President can fulfill his second term with a conservative Congress and Supreme Court, because we’ve seen no sign that Democrats will put their country before their party. To this end, Trump needs to do whatever’s necessary to ensure Republicans (legally) retain both chambers of Congress. And…stop talking smack…please!