We have eight deals that cover about 55% of world GDP with our biggest trading partners; the EU, Japan, Korea, and so on. For the deals that aren’t ready yet, they’re going to get the reciprocal rates.
NEC Director Kevin Hassett (Sunday on NBC)
Friday’s market slumps (e.g. S&P down 1.6%) prove moments of doubt are part of the journey to the Golden Age of America, for which tariffs will be central. So, it’s odd to hear tariffs alone blamed for the Fed not lowering rates on Wednesday, and for a “bad” July jobs report on Friday. In fact, there was tariff good news: a record $150 billion in 2025 tariff receipts, Q2 GDP up 3%, and breathtaking trade deals with the EU, Japan and South Korea.
Cries of “awful tariffs” are a reminder that America First comes with losers (Canada), and that Trump might not have it 100% right. Still, it’s folly to separate tariffs from the Golden Age’s four hallmarks; (1) gainfully employed citizens, (2) re-industrialization, (3) less government debt, and (4) AI and energy dominance.
Get a load of Trump’s punch list…
1. Fewer Forgotten Americans – Inside the July jobs report is the “good” news of 341,000 fewer foreign-born workers. Maybe it’s not deportations, but 2,000,000 native-born Americans found jobs (up 1.52%) in the last year. Did you know there were 32 million foreign-born workers in the US in 2024 (source: BLS)? There were, and that number includes a lot of cheap labor competing against Trump’s “forgotten” Americans.
It’s a massive problem; amongst America’s 133 million native-born workers today are 80.5 million low-income citizens without college degrees (source: St. Louis Fed). Their best hope for better wages, healthcare, and retirement plans are factory jobs, and Trump’s tariffs are the means to that end; the OEC estimates imports will decrease by $2.7 trillion and exports will increase by $1.6 trillion over the next three years.
According to the USTR, every $1 billion in imports costs 4,552 American jobs paying $40,000 annually, and every $1 billion in exports creates 5,997 jobs paying $49,000 annually – meaning the tariffs will create 25.5 million jobs paying an average of $44,000 a year. That’s an extra $1.1 trillion in US household income by 2028.
2. Reverse Marshall Plan – Inside the trade deals with the EU, Japan, and South Korea lies a total of $1.5 trillion that will be invested in US production over the next three years. Added to earlier announcements, that’s over $10 trillion in direct foreign investment to enlarge, modernize, and secure the Arsenal of Democracy. The new Golden Age of US manufacturing begins with a burst of construction to create best-in-class facilities in strategic industries like autos, aviation, metals, and pharmaceuticals.
By 2028, the OEC predicts imports from China, Canada, and Mexico alone will drop $1.02 trillion. No question, that’s protectionism, but it will allow US producers to scale up, lower their cost-per-unit, and compete against advanced industrial societies (e.g. Germany) that the US has forever indulged. No question, you’ll pay more for a luxury European auto, but you’ll be buying prosperity at home, and maybe peace around the world…
Because there’s a geopolitical message inside Trump’s tariffs. His administration is engaged in pocketbook warfare against the world’s worst trade cheater (China), biggest NATO cheapskate (Canada), and nastiest war monger (sanctioned Russia). And that – – should save American lives and treasure.
3. Reducing Government Debt and Deficits – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant says “de-leveraging the public sector and re-leveraging the private sector” is essential to funding the new Golden Age of America – and what that looks like is growing government revenue, cutting government costs, and shrinking the national debt. To wit, if the last quarter’s GDP growth of 3% continues for ten years, the extra tax revenue would shrink the national debt by $2 trillion (source: CBO). And that’s just the beginning…
DOGE estimates cutting 500,000 employees would save the federal government $530 billion over the next ten years, a window in which lowering interest rates to 2.25% would save the federal government $3.4 trillion (source: CBO). And (drum roll) the Budget Lab at Yale predicts the current trade deals will generate $2.7 trillion in tariff receipts by 2035
Moreover, reducing the federal funds rate and government borrowing would provide a windfall to the private sector; in 2024, businesses paid interest on $10.9 trillion in debt and homeowners paid interest on $20.8 trillion in mortgages. No question, dropping interest rates two points would be a huge stimulus.
4. AI and Energy Dominance – Credit the Trump administration for embracing artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, and energy production, because everyone – except Kamala – can follow the money to know Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the key to America’s next industrial revolution…as is abundant energy. Right now, the total market cap of America’s publicly traded AI companies is $21.83 trillion (source: stock analysis.com).
By 2030, $6.7 trillion will be invested in AI infrastructure, and $3.1 trillion will be allocated toward chip designers for AI data centers (source: McKinsey & Company). This will allow the US to remain #1 in AI research output, AI start-ups, and AI job postings – far ahead of #2 China – which is one reason the EU, Japan and South Korea agreed to pay 15% tariffs and invest $1.5 trillion in US production
The explosion in AI requires a lot more energy; AI computation will require 1,057 TWh (terawatt-hours) by 2030 to power America’s data centers; almost half of current US electrical output (2,241.3 TWh). This also connects to Trump’s tariffs; the EU, Japan and South Korea agreed to buy $950 billion in US energy over the next three years because they know America is on its way to global energy dominance.
So…the next time the tariffs get you down…buy and invest American.
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