I’ve already heard, a lot, that the reconciliation bill that Congress passed is going to kill people. ‘People are going to die. It’s only going to help rich people.’ None of that’s true.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA)
After reviewing June’s economic news, I think it’s time for Democrats to climb on the America First train, or at least eat a little crow. 147,000 new jobs were added, and unemployment dropped to 4.1%. Retail sales were up 3.2% over 2024, and consumer sentiment rose 16.7% from May. The New York Fed estimated Q2 inflation of 1.6%, the Atlanta Fed estimated Q2 GDP of 4.6%, and stock indices closed at or near record highs (source: CNBC).
Treasury Secretary Bessent took a victory lap: year-to-date federal receipts in fiscal 2025 were $254 billion higher than last year, because February-June receipts under Trump were $243 billion higher than under Biden (fiscal 2024), And, while year-to-date outlays were up $318 billion, they were actually down $900 million in February-June. If only a few district-court judges had not stayed the down-sizing and spending cuts – but hey! – unified GOP government is off to a good start.
Sadly, passage of H.R.1 (i.e. the Big Beautiful Bill) proved Democrats don’t want “their” bankrupt welfare state touched by Republicans. That was Chuck Schumer claiming “Medicaid is being gutted” despite annual budget increases of 2% through 2035. That was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claiming that an extra $200 billion for Medicaid “will kill Americans” somehow.
The Trump administration is “de-leveraging the public sector and re-leveraging the private sector” to save America from Democrat programs that do not work. Like the Green New Deal, which ignored the future of the US economy being driven by the AI revolution that requires abundant and reliable fossil fuels to generate enough electricity. Sadly, that thinking caused the national debt to rise from $26.9 trillion to $36.1 trillion under Biden (source: Statista).
Left-liberals have a fundamental flaw; thinking they are just that right about everything all the time. That’s the thinking behind Bernie Sanders’ false claim that “businesses don’t pay their fair share” in America, and Hakeem Jeffries’ belief that healthcare costs must not be cut. These two lies are debunked by two eye-opening facts in the tables below (source: MTS):
| US HEALTHCARE COVERAGE | |||
| Employer Plans | Government Plans | Un-Insured | |
| 1966 | 128,000,000 | 23,000,000 | 45,000,000 |
| 1994 | 111,000,000 | 66,600,000 | 39,700,000 |
| 2023 | 164,700,000 | 154,400,000 | 15,800,000 |
| US HEALTHCARE COST |
| Employer Paid | Government Paid | Budget Deficit | |
| 1966 | $35,800,000,000 | $3,2000,000,000 | $2,300,000,000 |
| 1994 | $577,000,000,000 | $299,000,000,000 | $203,600,000,000 |
| 2023 | $1,500,000,000,000 | $1,901,500,000,000 | $1,700,000,000,000 |
One, America’s employers provide healthcare to more people (164.7 million) at less cost ($1.5 trillion) than Medicare and Medicaid combined (154.4 million enrollees at a cost of $1.9 trillion).
Two, the $1.7 trillion federal budget deficit in 2023 was inexcusable, because US businesses provided $1.5 trillion in healthcare AND earned $3.7 trillion in profits (source: NIPA).
After Medicaid spending increased 31% in Biden’s first three years (from $683 billion to $894 billion), it’s no wonder voters ended Democrat rule last November. Most Americans support expansive healthcare, even as they are awed by the $4.7 trillion annual cost of it. What they don’t support is their FICA withholdings (for Social Security and Medicare) being diverted to fund Medicaid (now 1.3 times the size of Medicare).
Republican reforms to Medicaid in H.R.1 will cut 11 million enrollees (CBO estimate) by including $35 co-pays, work requirements, and stricter eligibility checks. That’s 5 million forced back to work, 4.6 million who won’t do the paperwork, and 1.4 million non-citizens. The Big Beautiful Bill also reduces “provider fees” that greatly enlarged the program after Obamacare went into effect.
Republicans are smart to stop states from gaming the system by dropping the “Medicaid tax” to 3.5%. Hospitals currently pay their state a 6% Medicaid tax, which earns the state a financial match from the federal government, which is funneled back to the hospitals as provider fees. We know these savings are huge because the GOP set aside $50 billion for rural hospitals.
Spending on Medicaid was $627 billion in 2019, $909 billion in 2024, and H.R.1 will not return the program to pre-COVID spending levels. Still, it’s a good start, with more rescission and reconciliation bills to come.
In closing, to be dismayed by tariff rumblings or fleeting district-court rulings is to not see the dogged determination of Mike Johnson, John Thune and Donald Trump, or appreciate John Roberts’ conservative court. I know a momentum campaign when I see one, and America First is like smash-mouth football…
It takes four quarters, and ultimately wears the other side down.