The economy is on solid footing, with solid growth, low and stable unemployment, and inflation continuing to come down towards our 2% target.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr (May 15)
On Friday, Michigan’s consumer sentiment index hit a near-record low (50.8), but stock indices kept climbing. Because the Panicans (a partisan who panics in response to Trump) could not deflate the US-China trade euphoria. This has Democrats bummed, because they need a recession before the mid-terms. Don’t scoff, because a DNC memo on January 21 urged its media allies to “talk about Trump’s plans to screw over America.”
A month later, their talking points (“looming economic disaster…consumer confidence falling sharply…everyday costs skyrocketing…Republicans pushing tax cuts”) were echoed by the New York Times: “Forecasters expect slower growth, higher unemployment and faster inflation than they did just a few months ago.” That Panican narrative was followed in March and April with the Times’ following headlines:
- Would Trump Risk a Recession?
- A Trump Recession?
- How Trump’s Shifting Tariffs Could Accelerate an Economic Downturn.
As of April 29, Trump’s press coverage has been 92% negative (source: Media Research Center). And THAT is how Panicans are born. To be sure, high tariffs can dampen corporate sales and profits, but the economic data – 17 weeks into Trump’s second term – are anything but gloomy.
Employment – on January 27, the President was accused of “killing jobs (and) working families” by the DNC’s Alex Floyd. Nice try, but April’s jobless rate was 4.2%, right where it was on Election Day, and 464,000 new jobs have been created under Trump (despite 26,000 fewer federal employees). Not bad, and LaborIQ is forecasting 1.8 million new jobs in 2025.
GDP Growth – On April 30, the AP reported, “US economy shrinks 0.3% in first quarter as Trump’s trade wars disrupt business.” A true – but incomplete – story, because the underlying data was positive; i.e. 21.9% increase in business investment, and 3% growth in final sales to private domestic buyers. The key negative was a one-off; a 41.3% increase in imports, which subtract from GDP growth, to front-run (not pay) Trump’s tariffs.
Inflation – Sen. Slotkin (D-MI) rebutted Trump’s address to Congress by predicting “grocery, home, energy prices, and prescriptions will cost more.” Oops! Annual CPI (2.3%) and PPI (2.4%) rates for April were the lowest since February 2021, and producer prices logged the biggest monthly drop in 4 years. And Thursday, Rep. Khanna (D-CA) introduced a bill to codify the President’s executive order that Big Pharma offer the US “most favored nation status” on drug pricing.
Market Indices – After Trump’s tariff announcement, US stock indices fell between 9.2% (DJIA) to 11.4% (Nasdaq). The Panicans looked smart until last Friday’s close, when the markets’ rebound was between 18% (S&P) to 20% (Nasdaq). Maybe Trump’s economic team was right about getting trade deals.
Personal Finances – Sen. Warren (D-MA) told her Twitter-X followers in February that Trump “will cheat you out of your savings.” Nope! Since Election Day, the percentage of Americans saying their personal finances are worsening has decreased from 41% to 31%, while the percentage seeing improvement has increased from 25% to 31% (source: NNNS).
Politics – The one metric that’s undeniably worsening is the number of Democrats rooting against the US economy, proving my long-held axiom: the party that got us into trouble won’t get us out of trouble. And, Democrats left our country in one hell of a mess (see below):
| Biden Inherited (2020) | Biden Left (2024) | Change | |
| Federal Interest Paid Yearly | $527 billion | $952 billion | + 80.6% |
| US Trade Deficit | $626 billion | $1.2 trillion | + 91.7% |
| US National Debt | $26.9 trillion | $35.5 trillion | + 31.9% |
Where were the Panicans when Democrats were bankrupting America? Protecting the Old Washington Order and its obsolete geoeconomics, which left Trump no options but to launch a counter-revolution. Check it out…
In response to the debt crisis, Interior Secretary Burgum looked hard at “America Inc’s Balance Sheet” and said it was under-valued at $172.5 trillion. Because domestic mineral reserves (copper, oil, etc.) are closer to $100 trillion than today’s $9.3 trillion (source: US Debt Clock). Burgum is going to “Map, Baby, Map” and “Drill, Baby, Drill” in order to re-set America’s “hidden assets” to a creditor-calming $263.2 trillion.
Even if Trump’s “$11 trillion” is half-true, $5.5 trillion invested in the US is a miraculous economic stimulus. Especially when Apple’s $500 billion will be more wisely invested than Obama’s $831 billion (American Recovery Act of 2009), and Qatar’s $1.2 trillion won’t boost the national debt like Biden’s $1.9 trillion (American Rescue Plan of 2021).
The Old Way is President Zelensky taking $182.8 billion from his “friend” Joe Biden. The New Way is Crown Prince bin Salman giving $600 billion to his “friend” Donald Trump. The Old Way is Senator Schumer fighting for federal funds to keep Harvard woke. The New Way is President Trump partnering with the UAE to build a massive AI campus in Dubai.
So the next time the President leaves you shaking your head, don’t panic. Maybe Team Trump is onto something good…
…like April’s budget surplus ($258.4 billion) being the second largest monthly surplus in US history.