Bill Clinton proved a sinner can win the White House by staying on message (“it’s the economy, stupid”) and a law-breaker could hold it if the economy was on his side. Because Biden is so feeble, family finances are under duress, and Trump has the nomination all but sown up, the GOP needs to re-think its campaign strategy – especially if it doesn’t want to sink-or-swim with abortion.
The RNC needs to keep it simple in 2024: (1) Who’s the enemy? The liberal elites making America unrecognizable. (2) Where’s the battlefield? Nine swing states (AZ, GA, ME, MI, NH, NC, NV, PA, WI). (3) How do we win? Talk to key voting blocs on their terms. Strategy: don’t over-think it!
Liberal Elites – DeSantis (and Trump) get it: President Biden is the creation of a rich-and-powerful cabal that’s been pushing education, info-tech, and regulations leftward for years. DeSantis won big in 2022 by making liberal elitism synonymous with oppressive government. He has since fired law-ignoring prosecutors, and gotten anti-parent school boards voted out of office. He now wants two terms as US president to get the job done (drain the Washington swamp).
Ousting Biden is the opening salvo in de-platforming the anti-American autarchs inside the Beltway, on college campuses, and atop news agencies. A silent majority is now aware of what researchers at Northwestern and UVA reported in 2021: Democrat elites are far left of registered voters on climate, healthcare, immigration, and taxation. Morning Consult confirmed this a week ago: by 9 points, voters think Democrats are “more ideologically extreme” than Republicans.
A Trump-DeSantis ticket is THE right-wing populist choice, and the Biden family has all but made January 6 worries go away. Last week, an AP poll found 70% of voters, including 40% of Democrats, believe Biden “acted either illegally or unethically” in Hunter’s business. In a race between two flawed men, the guess here is Trump wins.
Nine Swing States – Just like 2016 (80,000 votes in 3 states) and 2020 (44,000 votes in 3 states), the 2024 election will turn on a few states. Democracy Corps has identified nine battleground states (AZ, GA, ME, MI, NC, NH, NV, PA, WI) where President Biden is in trouble. Not only does he trail Trump by 5 points, 48% of voters in these nine states say they “will never vote for Biden” in 2024 – probably because 75% of voters think the country is on the wrong track.
The GOP challenge here is not turning Biden’s many flaws, unpopular positions, and failed policies into white noise; thereby blurring the contrast. Don’t dive into Biden’s serial lying, or Trump’s legal woes enter the debate. Don’t dwell on Bidenomics, or 14 million “new jobs” is on the ballot. Voters are angry today because of Biden. They don’t need an explanation.
They want to un-do what’s not working, so voting for Biden ensures more of the same. Right now, his 2020 support in these nine states has shifted to Trump, who’s up 18 points with independents, 25 points with white millennials, and 28 points with white Gen Z voters. It’s a good start, but only if the RNC improves its electioneering.
Match the Message to the Voter – So-called “swing states” are decided by three voting blocs, who want to be heard. The most important of these are “peripheral voters” who cast ballots only in presidential-election years (these numbers spike in tough times like the 2008 Banking-Housing crisis and 2020 COVID crisis). By the way, exit polls show about 40 million peripheral voters. Therefore…
Campaign Promise One is Reduce The High Cost Of Living, because working-class and middle-class voters blame Biden and his party for sticker shock at the grocery store, paying more at the gas pump, the scarcity of affordable housing, and the spike in mortgage rates – as do majorities of Gen Z, millennial, and white women voters in nine battleground states (source: Democrat pollster Ruy Teixeira).
And keep it real, because voters know everything now costs 30% more than in the Trump years. Let Biden lecture voters about corporate greed and incremental drops in inflation rates. Republicans need to talk about getting a dozen eggs back to $1.51 (2020 cost), a gallon of gas down to $1.50 (2003 cost), and reducing the median home price to $273,000 (2020 cost). Trump’s already on it, promising to “unleash the wealth that’s buried beneath our feet” (oil, they is).
Campaign Promise Two is Restore National Safety, because voters don’t trust Biden to keep them safe. “National security” is what we read about in The New York Times. National safety is how we feel about thousands of smash-and-grab robberies, millions of undocumented migrants, and two proxy wars. By a 12-point margin, battleground state voters said they’ll “feel more safe” under Trump than under Biden.
National safety – not abortion – is THE women’s issue of 2024. Gallup reports just 25% of US women will ever opt for an abortion, while a whopping 74% admit to feeling unsafe somewhere near their home (e.g. jogging alone, parking garage, etc). The view here is that Nikki Haley can best articulate this issue – even if she runs for VP – but the GOP must make this a binary choice: enjoy unprotected sex (D) or protected streets (R).
In fact, it just comes down to the white women’s vote. After winning only 38% in 2012, Democrats peaked in 2018 at 49%. It has since fallen, to 47% in 2020 and 45% in 2022. To be blunt, 2018’s virtue-signaling (never-Trump) isn’t on the ballot in 2024. Being strong at home and abroad is – and 52% of all women no longer support President Biden (source: Reuters).
Campaign Promise Three is Respect Parental Rights, because everyday people – as Ron DeSantis put it – “are tired of this crap,” and “putting families first” wins parents and suburban voters. To wit, Florida’s governor won 61% of parents, plus 58% of suburban (and 70% of rural voters). One year later, Glenn Youngkin put “families first” and won 51% of parents, plus 53% of suburban (and 63% of rural) voters in Virginia.
Family views on gender, race, and religion are the X-factor in 2024 because “extended families” are growing in the US. Out of 149 million boomers and millennials in 2022, there were 48,000,000 grandparents and 22,000,000 parents. BUT there will be 58,000,000 millennial parents by 2035 (source: SNIPP). It’s personal: we care a lot less about “woke” absurdities reported on Fox News than “woke” absurdities hoisted upon our own kids or grandkids – and that’s 106 million My Family Matters voters.
A bit longer than usual this week, but a Red Wave is here for the taking. Any one of DeSantis, Haley, or Trump can reverse the damage Biden has done. Every Republican now knows “ballot harvesting” is must-do electioneering. 2024 will be won or lost on nine battlefields (states) by hammering three messages to three voting blocs.
