How’s it even possible, after two impeachment trials, losing by over 7 million popular votes, and facing 91 felony counts, that Donald Trump is leading both the Republican field and a sitting Democrat president?
Me (at a cocktail party over Thanksgiving)
Voters are getting Trumpier, so the smart money’s on the ex-president being nominated and elected to serve a second term. No joke: Trump now leads Nikki Haley by 62 points and Biden by 8 points in the Real Clear Politics betting averages. 59.4% of Republicans support him, 60% of Independents view Biden unfavorably, and Democrats cling to abortion as THE issue.
Voters are at near-record levels of anger and fear, and Trump’s the blunt instrument an anxious electorate trusts in its darkest hour. And it’s dark as hell out there: 70% of voters think America’s best days are behind it (source: Rasmussen Reports). No question, Trump’s needle is pointing up: 25 red states are solidly behind him, 8 swing states are trending his way, and it’s no accident.
Joe Biden is the worst president in our lifetime; a mumbling, stumbling octogenarian that 76% of voters say is “too old” (source: Monmouth poll). He’s labeled PTA moms “domestic terrorists” after promising unity, cancelled “racially insensitive names” like Squaw Lake after promising normalcy, and moved too far left after promising bipartisan moderation. And, by almost any measure, he’s broken the federal government.
Compare 2023 to Trump’s third year (2019): $33.2 trillion national debt (up from $22.7 trillion), $659 billion interest paid (up from $375 billion), and $1.7 trillion annual deficit (up from $900 billion). Yes, Trump’s COVID spending boosted the national debt, but Biden’s executive orders and spending bills hyper-inflated the interest paid and deficit last year. Left unchecked, Bidenomics will create $45.2 trillion national debt, $3.1 trillion annual interest payments, and $2.9 trillion annual deficit by 2027 (source: US Debt Clock).
Will the US be too broke to fix the “American carnage” Trump ran against – and won on – in 2016? Because Biden’s made it worse. The illegal-alien population was actually at a 10-year low in 2016 (source: Pew Research). Now, the New York Times reports “crossings at the southern border are higher than ever.” Crime in 2016 was actually near its modern lows (source: FBI). Now, CNN reports “Americans are more worried about crime than at any other time this century.”
Democrats are counting on abortion, but that issue is NOT important to Trump’s base (first reported by Vox in 2017). He’s flip-flopped on the issue and retained the moral majority, because what evangelical Christians really care about is personal freedom (e.g. don’t make me perform an abortion or bake a gay-wedding cake). 90 million Evangelicals had their eyes opened in 2020 and 2021: blue states allowed George Floyd crowds 24-7, but wouldn’t allow churches to gather for one hour on Sundays.
MAGA is, in fact, a personal-freedom coalition; the Asian whose small shop barely survived COVID, the Black dad whose son is still in jail for marijuana possession, the Hispanic mom who wants school choice, and the White parents whose 7-year-old daughter’s public school made her admit her “privilege” at morning assembly (true story). These “peripheral voters” sit out off-year elections, when “engaged voters” like pro-choice women predominate, but will turn out in 2024.
Democrats and RINOs deride Trump as a “snake oil salesmen” out of ignorance. He’s a successful snake oil salesman, who knows a “great, big, beautiful wall” sells better than any of Joe Biden’s mumbo-jumbo on illegal immigration. I am personally a DeSantis-Haley lean, but I respect Trump’s ability to size up an electorate and hammer home a marketing message. Plus, he’s the political equivalent of Brer Rabbit’s tar baby.
Trump absorbs countless blows from his enemies, who end up stuck to him. Ms. Clinton sicced the deep state on Trump, lost, and is stuck whining non-stop about him. Biden reversed Trump’s executive orders, and is stuck behind him in the polls. Peter Meijer (R-MI) voted to impeach Trump, and now needs his support to win a senate primary. Liz Cheney (R-WY) tried to neuter Trump in the January 6 hearings, and had better sleep with one eye open if he wins.
This (Trump as a sympathetic figure) is the X-factor, because no US president has ever been treated so harshly. To be sure, he invited the many allegations, but a silent majority thinks Trump’s antagonists went too far. I suspect the polls show Democrats losing Asian, Black, Jewish, and Latino support because more than a few inside these “victim groups” relate to the treatment of Trump.
The problem with me writing and you reading about Trump is erudition, which is low on the MAGA spectrum. America is Trumpier because a visceral fear of Obama-Biden Democrats is spreading through the electorate. If you look at Trump and see a bully, look again because many millions see a bad-ass with a baseball bat coming to their rescue.
