The professionals who track American attitudes toward the economy say they can see the trouble coming. Angry voters, slammed by higher prices and scarred by two years of pandemic, are poised to punish Democrats in midterm elections.
Politico (this week)
Democrats are poised to lose elections in 2022 and 2024, now trailing Republicans by at least 3.6 points for Congress and 9.0 points for the presidency in eleven generic surveys. The map above, based on the latest Civiqs poll, shows President Biden’s approval above 50% in only three states, because three anger issues (economy, crime, and parenting) are driving voters away. Virginia 2021 exposed his party’s problems: voters see bad policies and a party too controlled by societal outliers.
In their handling of the pandemic (closing schools and businesses), Biden and Democrat governors alienated voters. K-12 parents believe by a 23-point margin that “educational and emotional damage to students from closed schools” was a horrible sacrifice to avoid “health risks to students and teachers” (source: Pew Research). By a 2 to 1 margin, Virginia voters had more “concern for the economy [than] for the coronavirus pandemic” (source: AP/NORC).
Most voters resent Democrats for tinkering with law enforcement and education in the name of “social justice.” One year after George Floyd’s death, voter trust in Back Lives Matter fell from 60% to 50%, while trust in law enforcement rose from 59% to 70% (source: Ispos). Virginia voters had three times more “concern for education [than] for racism” (source: AP/NORC). A recent Heritage study found 68% of K-12 parents (and 83% of teachers) want schools to focus civics content on the rights and duties of citizenship rather than critical race theory.
By pushing LGBTQIA too far too fast, Mr. Biden has lost the silent majority. When Virginia voters self-selected “gender” in 2021, they were 52% female, 47% male, and less than 1% non-binary. Of equal importance, 28% of the voters were parents and 24% were “evangelical Christians” (source: AP/NORC). By a 15-point margin, Americans support “limiting the teaching of sexual orientation and gender identity” in lower schools (source: Morning Consult poll).
Elections are ultimately decided by what voters fear most. Household economies are the big issue in California because a gallon of gas costs $5.82. Law and order is a national issue because 75% of voters believe “defunding the police caused a violent crime wave” (source: Morning Consult). Parents fear for their kids because Brown University found pandemic-born babies had IQs 21 points lower than pre-pandemic babies, North Carolina found COVID caused 3rd grade reading skills to fall 8% and 8th grade math skills to fall 20%, and California found fewer than half its students at grade level in English, math and science.
The Civiqs map (above) is reflective of “progressive” promises that resulted in “real word” pain and suffering. It is also predictive of a political re-set that even CNN acknowledges: a record wave election in November that gives control of Congress to the GOP. The Civiqs poll has Democrats running from the President. He’s “under water” by 16 points nationally. A deep dive into the poll explains the extent of his damage (see below):
26 SCREAMING RED States – Biden is at least 20 points “under water” in more states than Obama in 2010 or Trump in 2018. Expected in West Virginia (74% disapproval vs. 19% approval). Shocking in Nevada (56% disapproval vs. 35% approval).
9 SOLID RED States – His disapproval is greater than 50%. Expected in Florida (55% disapproval vs. 38% approval) but not Virginia (54% disapproval vs. 37% approval).
9 LEANING RED States – Biden is “under water” in states he won in 2020, trending toward majority disapproval (down only 1 point in New York, but down 9 points in Delaware).
1 TOSS-UP State – Biden is scaring Democrats in California, where his disapproval (45%) is now tied with his approval (45%).
2 LEANING BLUE States – Biden is “above water” in Illinois and Maryland, but not above 50%.
3 SOLID BLUE States (and DC) – Biden is still popular in DC, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Vermont.
GRIM DEMOGRAPHICS – No age group currently approves of Biden: disapproved of by 54% of those aged 18-34, 50-64, and over 65, and unliked by 52% of 35-49-year-old voters. 48% of postgraduates and 54% of college and high school graduates disapprove of him. 48% of women and 60% of men disapprove of the President. 41% of Hispanics and 62% of whites dislike him. In fact, only two groups truly approve of Mr. Biden: African-Americans (but slipping) and single women with college degrees and no children.
Democrats have an insurmountable problem: its loudest voices keep its worst ideas in the news. To wit, Fauci scare-mongers about a “new strain in the fall” when every voter knows a vaccinated person who contracted COVID (and lived). Black Lives Matter pushes race-based lesson plans, despite many courts agreeing that “good parenting” can mean a child doesn’t have to self-label as an “oppressor” or “victim.” And, always in the background, is a gaffe-a-minute president, whose age and mental acuity will be on the 2022 ballot. It could get ugly.
