Six months after the blue wave, liberal advocacy group Future Majority reports Joe Biden and Democrats are in trouble in 37 “key” swing districts, where 60% of voters now claim the US government is “not working well” for them. On MSNBC, political scientist Rachel Bitcofer (who predicted the 2018 “blue wave”) gives “excellent” odds to the GOP retaking Congress in 2022. Democrat James Carville blames dumb ideas from his party’s “noisy wing.” And the losers are…
…whatever repels the independent voters that favored Joe Biden for president by 13 points (source: CNN), like education, immigration, police departments, and taxes. Future Majority found 62% of independents would vote for a “school choice” candidate and 57% against a “cancel culture” candidate, 62% would vote for a “fix immigration” candidate and 69% against an “open borders” candidate. 76% would vote against a “defund the police” candidate.
This is known to liberal media like the Washington Post: “Biden’s popularity is poor among independent voters…voters in key states like his handling of the pandemic…dislike him on every other issue tested.” The Post reports voters in swing districts don’t like Biden’s handling of “the economy and jobs, racial justice, and environmental and climate policy” – and 60% of independents don’t like “his handling of the southern border with Mexico.” What happened?
It’s My Kid’s School, Stupid!
There’s an election-deciding anger issue in suburban American: forcing Critical Race Theory into US History at public schools. 65% of voters view CRT unfavorably (source: YouGov) because (1) the “theory” is seen as an assertion of racial essentialism, (2) white humans are stereotyped as “privileged” oppressors, and (3) black humans are viewed as universally repressed. Prediction: costs Democrats 10 “swing” House seats.
As a political matter, CRT “fact arguments” miss the point entirely. The issue is less about what 1619 Project got wrong and more about whether it should be taught to second-graders, and whether tax-paying parents have a say in curriculum changes at public schools. Elections turn on perceptions, voters pick the least-risky choice, and parents are ALWAYS defensive. Holding a 1619 rally in DC is one thing. Asking my child to recite the sins of her race is quite another.
It’s an Immigration Crisis, Stupid!
Joe Biden as good as invited Central Americans to rush the US border, and he is rightly blamed for the border-state crisis. Because he caused it and continues to ignore it, voters in 9 border districts will be up for grabs in 2022. This GOP shift was confirmed in border-city McAllen (TX), which is 85% Latino and just elected it’s first ever Republican mayor, proving just how nuanced an anger issue immigrants and immigration are on the US-Mexico border. Prediction: costs Democrats 2 “border” House seats.
This issue plays out on TV, where CNN airs face-saving Jen Psaki and Univision shows face-down victims of the trek north. Latin American voters can at once resent illegals “not waiting their turn” and “depressing wages” AND fear what crime cartels and coyotes will do next. Most Latinos migrated to America for gainful employment and safe neighborhoods, and they’re leaving America’s liberal party because it’s moved too far left.
It’s a Crime Wave, Stupid!
When MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle recently warned, “a year out from midterms and Democrats are already facing an uphill climb,” she also noted New York’s tough-on-crime Eric Adams defeated a field of progressive Democrats in the mayoral race. Duh! Because murders are up 25% in the US, and Democrats run the ten highest-crime cities and top ten cities for per capita homeless rates (source: BBC). Prediction: Democrats lose 10 “suburban” House seats.
Listen to Detroit’s black police chief, James Craig: “black-on-black crime does exist…vulnerable communities [see] violent crimes by persons of color against persons of color,” which is why 50% of Blacks want “more cops on the street” (source: YouGov). Come November 2022, voters know who to blame for bail-free cities, fewer police recruits, and less stop-and-frisk. By the way, Mr. Craig is a Republican being groomed to run against Governor Whitmer (D-MI) in 2022.
It’s the Economy, Stupid!
It’s a bad time to flirt with inflation, because Baby Boomers are (1) rushing into retirement, (2) need fixed incomes to cover the cost of living, and (3) turn out to vote. It’s a bad time to constrain supply chains, because Millennials are (1) buying first homes, (2) starting families, and (3) finalizing party affiliations. Biden’s advisors call higher inflation rates (5.4% CPI and 7.3% PPI) “transitory” despite his proposed $6 trillion in new spending on top of $28 trillion in national debt. Really?
Waking the Inflation Kraken is bad enough, but raising corporate taxes to 28% hurts businesses and employees, and hiking top capital-gains tax rate to 43.4% hurts investors and innovators. When will Democrats learn “collectivism” (government stake in your business) and “equality” (risk-taking innovators held back) is anathema to 65% of the US electorate. No voter believes an “extra check” creates family wealth or “free stuff” created Apple’s success. Prediction: Democrats get crushed in red states.
It’s Just a Theory, Stupid!
Carville observes the “noisy wing” scaring away clear-thinking voters with dodgy solutions to complex problems. For example, New York City defunded the police, which down-sized police forces in black precincts, increased black-on-black crime, and made tough-on-crime Eric Adams THE Democrat for mayor. In fairness, the “noisy wing’s” bad idea aspired to protect Blacks from racist cops – a complex problem that also has a GOP theory to solve it.
This is where the “noisy wing” becomes a democratic liability, because they reject Anglo-American law-and-order (statutes + constables + prosecutors + courts + prisons) as inherently racist; their gripe du jour with US History, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and hiring practices. As with every gripe, there is some truth behind it. But, as with every theory, there is a hole (often a big one) in it. Because he knows election math, Carville knows a bad theory when he sees one.
Carville fears the “noisy wing” is breaking up the Democrat coalition. Asians are angry at Democrat education theories: GOP added 4% more Asian votes (31%) in 2020. Latinos are angry at Democrat immigration theories: GOP added 10% more Latino votes (38%) in 2020. Black men are angry at Democrat policing theories: GOP added 2% more of their votes (20%) in 2020. Lower-income voters are angry at Democrat economic theories: GOP added 3% more of their votes (44%) in 2020.
Carville rejects the gripe du jour because he knows Biden picked up white votes (41%, compared to Clinton’s 37%) and middle-income votes (57%, compared to Clinton’s 46%) and slipped with the aforementioned groups. He knows “moderate” Biden won, “progressive” Biden loses, out-parties add voters in mid-term elections, red states are gerrymandering, and his party needs a 2022 miracle. Carville senses GOP victories to the echoes of his 1992 line: it’s everything, stupid! And it hurts.
