Republicans are fighting an uphill battle to retain control of the House. Even so, the situation is not nearly as shaky as it was at this point in 2018 — nor is Democrats’ position as strong as it was then.
Doug Schoen (The Hill)
In the last month, I’ve been at four GOP events where the consensus for this year’s mid-terms is that Democrats probably re-take the House, and possibly the Senate. Folks point to historical precedent, the President’s weak poll numbers, and the anti-ICE protests. Truth be told, it’s too early to prognosticate, which is why my first mid-term forecast drops after Memorial Day (after much economic stimuli) and the second after Labor Day (after voters know the candidates).
Two historical precedents “doom” Republicans. One, in 18 of the last 20 midterms, the president’s party has lost House seats. Two, since 1952, no party has held the House when their president’s approval rating is under 50% – and Trump’s current job approval is 42% in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average. The GOP’s razor-thin House majority doesn’t help either; so, if the idea of gavels in Democrat hands gets you down, 2026 might disappoint. Still…
Don’t Expect a Repeat of 2018
Democrats are giddy because Trump’s 42% approval is exactly where it was in February 2018; primarily, because he’s 15 points under water with how voters feel about his handling of the economy (the RCP average is 41% approve and 56% disapprove). They also believe Gestapogate (i.e. portraying ICE arrests as the “ethnic cleansing” of non-whites) will work just Russiagate did in 2018. That’s pretty much where their good news stops, because the 2026 electoral battlefield looks nothing like 2018
Back then, 31 of the seats Democrats flipped were in districts Trump had carried by less than 5 points in 2016. Today, The Hill reports that only 14 GOP seats meet that criteria, a dynamic echoed by the latest Cook Political Report; there are only 18 “toss-ups” this year, compared to 75 “competitive” House races in 2018. This means the GOP can focus Trump’s time and their cash-on-hand advantage ($165 million vs. $85 million) in fewer House districts. Then, there’s re-districting, where – after the dust settles – Ballotpedia has the GOP gaining 3 “safe” House districts.
The Democrats’ bad news starts with their downward trend in popular-vote totals. In 2022, they received 9.4 million fewer popular votes than in the 2018 mid-terms. In 2024, Democrat House candidates received 6.7 million fewer popular votes than in 2020. This down cycle is confirmed by the latest RCP generic ballot; House Democrats poll 2.1 points lower today than in 2018. The Hill reports the generic ballot today is “essentially a tie.”
Back to the President’s low RCP approval ratings; 42% is still better than the Democrat Party’s 35.3% approval, which is 5.2 points behind the Republican Party’s 40.5% approval rating.
It’s The Economy, Stupid
Republicans lost the House in 2018, when the BMI (Barro Misery Index) was 9.1. BMI is inflation + unemployment + interest rates – GDP growth. In contrast, they added seats in 2002 with a 6.6 BMI. Right now, after unemployment and inflation rates dropped in January, the BMI is 7.0. That’s 2.1 points lower than in 2018. The White House knows this, inserting “best ever” into its economic messaging. Of greater significance are the economic targets for 2026, which the Trump administration is not shy about sharing regularly with CNBC and Fox Business:
- 3.9% jobless rate
- 2.0 inflation rate
- 3.7% long-term interest rate
- 5.0% GDP growth rate
Those numbers add up to a 4.7 BMI score, which translates to the support and predictability that every stakeholder wants to “feel” from in the US economy. In such a scenario, it’s hard to envision voters re-installing Democrats into control of the House, which is why panicky Democrats openly rooted against the US economy all spring and summer, and now actively undermine it with a shutdown. Keep this is mind as you follow the economic news between now and Election Day.
Gainful Employment. 311,000 new jobs since January 2025 is not record-breaking, but the unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.3%. The good news is in the granular data: new jobs have gone to 2.5 million native-born workers, 1.2 million immigrants have left the US workforce, and nominal average wages have grown by 4.3% since January 2025 (source: BLS). In the same time frame, the federal workforce has shrunk by 325,000 workers.
The President ran on more domestic manufacturing; therefore, adding 5,000 factory jobs in January seems puny. Until considering the stimuli of what’s to come; US capital investment has increased 4.4% on Trump’s watch, compared to 2.9% in Biden’s last year. Year over year, foreign imports are down 6.8%, while US exports are up 6.3%. And if you fear American jobs will be lost in a trade war, the UN Trade and Development office just reported 7% global-trade growth, up to a record $35 trillion. Spoiler alert: Trump IS successfully re-ordering global trade.
Spending Power. Higher wages are the foundation of purchasing power, and purchasing power is how consumers perceive “affordability.” Thursday’s good jobs-and-wage data teed up Friday’s good inflation data; in January, the annual inflation rate was 2.4%. That’s down from 2.7% in December and the lowest recording since last May (source:BLS). And, inside thefood and shelter prices increased only 0.2%. So far, with Trump in office, retail gas prices have dropped 10%.
Spending Power. Higher wages are the foundation of purchasing power, and purchasing power is how consumers perceive “affordability.” Thursday’s good jobs-and-wage data teed up Friday’s good inflation data; in January, the annual inflation rate was 2.4%. That’s down from 2.7% in December and the lowest recording since last May (source:BLS). And, inside theDid you know the IRS refunded $329 billion last year? That helped consumer spending expand at a 3.5% annualized pace in 2025, and personal consumption hit an all time high ($16.6 trillion) in the third quarter. Now, because of the Big Beautiful Bill’s tax provisions (e.g. no tax on tips), Treasury Secretary Bessant estimates tax refunds this spring of up to $150 billion.
Falling Interest Rates. Since Trump took office, the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate three times (currently under 3.75%), but that did not make the President happy. Thanks to Biden, annual interest payments on the federal debt are $1.2 trillion (source: CBO and GAO). Trump wants interest rates lowered to 2.7%; thereby lowering annual interest payments to $750 billion (source: Peterson Foundation). Further, those three rate cuts helped mortgage rates fall from 7% to 6.2%. The President believes a Fed rate of 2.7% will drive 30-year fixed mortgage rates below 5.5%, helping millennial first-time home buyers, whom he views as soon-to-be America First voters.
A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats. US stock indices have increased by 33% (DOW) to 58% (NASDAQ) under Trump, stoking stockholder feelings of wealth and, because markets are forward-looking, business-leader confidence in tomorrow. The Republican Party’s goal is 5% GDP by 2026 yearend. In 2025, so far so good; Q1 at -0.5%, Q2 at 3.3%, Q3 at 4.4%, and Q4 to be released Friday next. No prediction here, other than to note how Trumponomics 2.0 has exceeded expert opinions.
Can the GOP break with historical precedent? Impossible to say, but Trump’s out-performed the experts too often to bet against him, while Democrats have lost favor with voters too often to bet on them. Easier to say what has to happen. Keep unemployment, inflation and interest rates falling, keep GDP rates rising, and pass the SAVE Act.