Rather than havens for the old, small metros and rural areas are now America’s prime nurseries. Rather than places doomed to become smaller and geriatric, these less dense places are becoming the nurseries of the nation.
Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox
Liberals are lost in the BOZONE (IQs lowered by oxygen deprivation) if they don’t know why ABC fired Jimmy Kimmel. Most, if not all, nice folks know Charlie Kirk’s assassination was a time to mourn, not joke about it. Most, if not all, educated folks know why for-profit broadcasters Nexstar and Sinclair responded to Kimmel’s insensitivity by pushing ABC to suspend the late-night TV host.
In politics, it’s reckless to side with that sliver of the electorate (11%) that says “violence to achieve political goals is justified” (source: YouGov). Because 85% to 90% of Americans “identify with or practice some form of religion” (source: PRRI) and every religion mourns the dead. ABC is simply siding with America’s moral majority by having zero tolerance for on-air insensitivity that appeared cruel to at least half the country.
In the entertainment business, everyone knows Nextstar (200 TV stations) and Sinclair (185 TV stations) operate hundreds of TV stations outside of (liberal) big-metro markets like Boston (MA), which are losing viewers to (conservative) small-metro markets like Wheeling (WV), especially the 18-29-year-old demographic that watches late-night TV.
To be sure, Kimmel has a right to free speech – maybe on some other platform like (de-platformed) Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson now enjoy – but broadcasters have a right to hold onto viewers. It’s this simple: Kimmel and his ilk are losing viewers because young men have become more conservative (NEP exit polls in 2024 found 56% of men aged 18-29 voted for Trump, and the Common App reports that the males entering college in the fall 2024 were the “most conservative in 50 years”).
That Great Big Sucking Sound
America’s big metro areas (populations over 1,000,000) are losing residents. From 2010 to 2020, their urban core counties lost 2.7 million people, with 2 million migrating to nearby suburbs and exurbs; say, from Boston to Framingham or Worcester. Then, when COVID normalized remote work from 2020 to 2024, those same urban core counties lost another 3.3 million residents, with 2.3 million migrating away from big metro areas altogether; say, from New York City to Martinsville, Virginia (source: USCB). This shift is both real and consequential.
First, unlike what happened between 1960 and 2010, big metro areas no longer attract the majority of America’s 20-to-44-year-old residents. The young-adult growth rate in big metro areas that was +4% in 1980 was -1.2% in 2020. In contrast, smaller metro areas (populations under 250,000) saw their young-adult growth rate surge from -1.5% in 2010 to +0.9% in 2020 (source: University of Wisconsin).
Second, housing prices account for almost 90% of the cost differential between big-city living and the national average, because strict building and land regulations drove up urban housing costs. The same regulatory burden that began in California’s big cities spread to big cities in nearby states like Oregon and Washington. The results have been disastrous; falling home ownership rates and rising outmigration.
Third, businesses have found lower costs since 2000 by expanding in red-state America (i.e. the Rust Belt and Sun Belt). The result of this is a net out-migration of 4,000,000 native-born residents from just California and New York, the nation’s two most urbanized states. And, the Wall Street Journal reports growing numbers of foreign-born residents are re-locating out of LA and New York to medium-sized cities like Columbus (OH) and Omaha (NE).
Fourth, America’s big cities (from Portland to Chicago to Boston) now have its lowest birth rates, while the nation’s highest birth rates are in markets with fewer than 250,000 residents (source: American Community Survey). And – of paramount importance – the peak birth rates are in towns with 50,000 to 100,000 residents (e.g. Cheyenne, Wyoming; Decatur, Illinois; and Jacksonville, North Carolina). Higher birth rates mean growing families, home sales, school enrollments, and congressional districts.
Suffice it to note that big metro areas – especially on both coasts – are the Democrat Party’s (and Jimmy Kimmel’s) lifeblood, so these shrinking populations and mounting problems spell doom for the party and its policies – – and don’t expect the trend to reverse anytime soon.
Green Acres for the GOP
Credit the GOP for knowing home ownership has been in decline for decades, blaming regulations and interest rates, and doubling down since the pandemic. That’s because COVID caused housing prices to spike, especially in big-blue metro areas like San Jose, California. This eroding affordability spurred net domestic migration to states with costs of living that are lower than the national average, such as Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota (source: USBEA).
The losers are overwhelmingly blue cities/states, because tidal waves of older retirees and younger families are moving to where they can find affordable housing, be it a retirement or first home. This move is overwhelmingly to smaller metro areas; of great significance because home ownership is the time-tested way to build the household wealth that grows a community’s middle class and its tax base. This one mega-trend allows Republicans to sell the American Dream and American Dynamism with a straight face.
This demographic trend is massively consequential, starting with the migration of older and more conservative voters into red towns/states, and their propensity to vote. To wit, older voters (over 65) gave Trump the lion’s share of their vote in 2024; i.e. 58% in Florida, 59% in Texas, 60% in Georgia, and 67% in Tennessee. Not to be outdone, married couples with kids also moved into red towns/states, where they too voted for Trump in droves; 59% in Georgia, 61% in Florida, 62% in Texas, and a whopping 70% in Tennessee (source: Fox News exit polls).
Affordable housing and job growth, more new residents and childbirths: what’s not to like for the Republican Party?
Democrats on the Eve of Destruction
The days of Jack Kennedy attracting the “best and the brightest” are long gone, and so are the days of late-night TV hosts making jokes at both political parties’ expense. In their place are angry Chuck Schumer and Stephen Colbert, who reflexively toggle from one deplorable Republican to another, losing voters with each new “fascist” proclamation. Rather than save their urban strongholds by supporting law-and order and fixing inner-city schools, they increase the regulations and taxes that make housing unaffordable. As Louisiana’s witty senator, John Kennedy, said recently, “It must suck to be that dumb.”