The share of Americans saying ‘a third major party is needed” hit a record high of 63% in Gallup last October. Young voters are especially eager for more choices.
Lee Drutman (CNN)
Don’t sleep on Bobby Kennedy, Jr, (RFK), because 33% of voters say they “can see themselves voting for him” (source: NBC News). Odds are he affects the 2024 election outcome, especially for President Biden. GOP strategist David Avella explains: “Democrats have taken for granted young voters, self-described moderates and minorities to the point that they are at the center of Kennedy’s base of support. Thus, Kennedy being on the ballot is the Democrats’ worst nightmare.”
According to Gallup, 52% of voters view RFK favorably, and he’s taken 5% of the GOP from Trump, whose voter favorability is 42%. Those are RINOs who dumped Trump in 2020. But, he’s peeled off 10% of Democrats from Biden, whose voter favorability is only 41%. Those are working-class Latinos and Whites who voted for the President in 2020. Bottom line: Trump’s held onto his base, while Biden voters are jumping ship. History suggests political re-alignment is possible.
In 1892, populist James Weaver won five states, forcing Democrats to adopt a populist platform in 1896. In 1968, Dixiecrat George Wallace won five states, inviting Nixon’s “Southern strategy” in 1972 that turned Dixie into a GOP stronghold. I’m pretty sure that’s why NBC News reports that Democrats are “freaked out” and calling Kennedy a “spoiler.” Right now, the Real Clear Politics average shows RFK taking 10 points away from Biden in a 3-way race.
Take Nevada, where Trump leads Biden by 4 points in a 2-way race, but by 6 in a 3-way race (source: The Hill). Working-class voters, who leaned Democrat in 2020, now rightly blame Biden for COVID lockdowns and expensive groceries. No surprise then that a recent Wall Street Journal poll found RFK winning 15% of Nevada’s voters – and 13% in Arizona, 12% in Michigan, 10% in North Carolina, and 10% in Wisconsin. It gets worse…
…because Politico reports RFK frightens Democrat Party Latino leaders: a February internal-party poll shows him winning 21% of Nevada’s Hispanic voters, effectively “splintering Biden’s Hispanic coalition” from 2020. Party insiders say the poll has Trump winning Hispanics outright – 41% to Biden’s 34% – in twelve swing states, presaging a Biden loss.
That fear – of RFK as Biden’s “spoiler” – is clearly behind the Democrat smears of RFK as an “unhinged conspiracist” and that he’s “helping” the Trump campaign. To be sure, RFK wants to close the southern border, but he shares positions with far-left Democrats Liz Warren (anti-corporate), AOC (pro-environment), and Bernie Sanders (pro-worker). He’s clearly no Trumpkin, but what he’s saying can spoil the 2024 election for Democrats.
It begins with calling Biden “the greatest threat to democracy” for denying free speech and waging lawfare against his political enemies, when 90% of Americans – Democrats and Republicans alike – believe the country functions better when the rights to free speech and equal protection under the law are vigorously protected (source: AP/NORC survey). And, 80% of US citizens say the right to own a gun is important to protect. How’s that make Democrats look?
That’s the real USA, not Biden’s make-believe land of “you ain’t black” victims and “white Christian nationalist” oppressors. In the REAL America, only 25% of voters believe their country is heading in the right direction, and only 37% approve of Biden’s leadership (source: Quinnipiac). It might be divine intervention if wavering Democrats hear RFK (rather than Trump) say Biden got the DNC to ban a “Kennedy” from his party’s primaries, colluded with Big Media to control free speech, and weaponized the DOJ and FBI to ruin Trump’s campaign.
That affront to free and fair elections was noted by Republican Marc Lotter on Fox News: “So much for the party that says it is defending democracy. What Democrats are doing to RFK is no different than what they are doing through the courts and radical election officials to target Donald Trump.” By the way, this anti-democracy evil is not limited to elected Democrats and their employees: it has infected NPR, where NO Republicans are employed at its headquarters (source: Fox News).
That’s according to NPR business editor Uri Berliner, whose Free Press essay faulted his employer for trumpeting Trump-Russia in 2016 and downplaying Hunter Biden’s laptop in 2020: “At NPR, we hitched our wagon to Trump’s most visible antagonist, Adam Schiff…the laptop was newsworthy and NPR’s journalists said it was good we weren’t following the laptop story because it could help Trump.”
That’s the cabal that Time magazine gleefully disclosed in 2021 as the insurance policy against a second Trump term. Even if you voted against Trump, have Biden, his party, and his media allies represented your values? That’s what’s at stake: the guarantee of a free and fair election – even when it elects a Hoover, Nixon, Carter, or Trump. RFK gets this and he won’t shut up. Thank God!
