Donald Trump is a friend of mine, but he’s going to spend a lot of time in a courtroom and not on a campaign trail. We need to clean up what they’ve done to Trump but also carry our country forward. It’s actually just getting started.
Nikki Haley (about her campaign)
Despite what Trump-Biden fatalists say, the GOP field had a good week. Biden tried to one-up Maui victims, claiming his cat and Corvette were almost lost in a kitchen fire. Trump tweeted a mug shot, and two of his employees admitted they lied to a grand jury. Meanwhile, eight Republican hopefuls on a debate stage previewed what’s in store for 2024.
The big news was the confirmation of winning GOP issues for 2024. According to Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight polling, Republicans watching the debate care about five issues:
- Inflation
- Immigration
- Woke culture
- Government spending
- Beating Biden
Those are winning GOP issues: the Real Clear Politics average has Biden under water on inflation (30 points), immigration (27 points), cultural extremism (22 points), spending (20 points), and job approval (15 points). It is a big win for the RNC that its candidates are of a single mind on the big stuff (unlike the DNC, which is quickly dividing over hordes of illegal immigrants in New York City and smash-and-grab mobs in Los Angeles).
But, the GOP has three losing issues of its own: my poll of polls shows they are under water on abortion bans (29 points), Trump (19 points), and January 6 (12 points). Silver’s numbers suggest Wednesday’s winners were the ones who addressed these “losing issues” on the debate stage. When presidential elections come down to a few swing states, why let abortion and Trump fire up the Democrat base, or let Trump and January 6 turn off Independents?
Haley gave her party its 2024 “abortion” talking points: (1) ban late-term abortions, (2) encourage adoptions, (3) don’t force pro-life doctors and nurses to perform abortions, (4) make contraception widely available, and (5) don’t put a women in jail if she gets an abortion. Brilliant, and probably why her support jumped 16.5 points, favorability rose 14 points, and 50% thought she did well. No wonder the White House fears her most (source: Politico).
Ramaswamy’s plan to beat Trump starts by calling him the “best president of the 21st century” and succeeds by being a better version of America First. He can say “an open border is no border” without Joe invoking Adolph Hitler, and “reverse racism is racism” without Kamala raising the specter of Bull Connor. The personal attacks from his older rivals only proved how a young, smart Republican might thwart out-of-touch Democrats.
He cogently explains his positions; opposing the Ukraine War because it “pushes Russia closer to China,” and shredding Biden’s climate positions because “fossil fuels are a requirement for human prosperity.” Well said, lifting his GOP support 5.5 points and favorability 10.2 points. 55% of viewers thought Vivek did well.
DeSantis refused to talk about January 6: “This election is not about January 6. I know Democrats want to talk about [that], but I learned in the military that you focus on the mission above all else; so Republicans, we have got to look forward, bringing the message that can win in November of 2024.” Trump is not able to refuse January 6 questions, which is why Democrats so badly want Trump to be the GOP nominee.
DeSantis closed by looking forward, promising to “reverse the decline of this country” by restoring “the American Dream, parents’ rights, and the well-being of our children.” I think most Republicans agreed when he said, “2024 is make or break,” which is why his GOP support rose 4.5 points, favorability climbed 7 points, and 56% thought he did well.
Wednesday night was mostly a laboratory for the right GOP message; Ramaswamy claiming “there are three branches of government, not four,” and Tim Scott saying “if God made you a man, play sports against men.” It was also an appeal to 74 million who voted for Trump in 2020; Chris Christie and Mike Pence claiming Trump put himself above country, and Haley saying “Trump is the most disliked politician in America – we can’t win a general election that way.”
Still, Trump is way ahead in national polls, allowing him to talk presumptuously about the nomination. Until Republicans stop sending a message to Biden and start voting their interests. Democrats are awful, but who behaves like Trump? No way Nikki Haley pays “hush money” to a porn star, Tim Scott holds a “Stop The Steal” rally, or Ron DeSantis pressures a fellow Republican “to find 11,780 votes” two months after an election. All three would give Biden fits.
Trump has two hurdles. One, conservative pundits will start admitting the charges against Trump can result in felony convictions handed down by juries of his peers – not his partisan enemies. Two, the GOP field will thin, and conservative media and money will galvanize around a fresh face of the Republican Party. The point here is that all popularity is fleeting, and DeSantis, Haley, and Scott are waiting in the wings.
The bigger point is that 70% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans want someone other than Biden or Trump on the ballot (source: NBC News). I think that means the race has just begun.
