We have the right. It’s protected with our First Amendment, to question our government and to question elections, and when you start seeing the media cancel people for questioning their government, that’s when we have a problem.
Kari Lake (R-AZ) on CNN
This issue covers the keys to the election and what’s at stake. Be of good cheer – and remember to vote!
Rising prices and shrinking 401Ks will cost Democrats Congress. Their mayors and governors will get the boot for rising crime and school closures. That’s what creates the “minimum” GOP victories in the table above. However, if voters believe cancel culture – not climate, election and history “deniers” – is the “existential” threat to America, maximum GOP wins ensue.
Every American learns in high school Civics that good democracy depends on citizen-skeptics, which is why numerous polls found most voters think the President’s “denier” shaming is divisive and unfounded. To wit, when asked by Democrat pollsters about the “MAGA threat” to democracy, swing voters compared the Jan. 6 Capitol riot to the George Floyd riots in 2020 (source: Washington Post). The attempt to shame sowed resentment, for which Biden has only himself to blame.
Just Wednesday the President said the “extreme MAGA element of the Republican Party [is not] waiting for the elections to be over, trying to succeed where they failed in 2020; denying your right to vote [by] intimidation of voters and deciding whether your vote even counts [by] intimidation of election officials.” Just in case any votes might go to a “climate denier” in Texas or “election denier” in Arizona – except these mid-terms are a referendum on Democrat bad-policy deniers.
How many times has Biden denied worsening inflation and Cathy Hochul dismissed New York’s rising crime? Who can believe Randi Weingarten’s union, that refused kids in-school classes, now wants “pandemic amnesty” from those kids’ parents? Those are the winning issues for the GOP, which you can track in 26 states at 8:00 PM Tuesday, when three key voting blocs can be assayed.
If once-blue districts in New England turn red, inflation and Biden’s denials have lost moderate Democrats. The economy (household standard of living) is the paramount mid-term issue. It’s left millennials (never seen such inflation) and their parents (never seen such scarcity) afraid of the Democrat agenda. By 9:00, focus on energy-challenged New England and how Republicans are faring in US House elections.
Reuters reports the “U.S. Northeast faces its highest energy costs in more than 25 years due to tight heating oil supplies and fierce global competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes.” So, if Biden 2020 voters in once-safe Democrat precincts blame Biden for inflation and the “Saudi deal” misfire, it will show up in two House races.
In Rhode Island 2, Allan Fung (R) leads Seth Magaziner (D). His macro-message is that “our nation is going in the wrong direction – record setting inflation is robbing you in the grocery stores and at the gas pump.” In New Hampshire 1, 25-year-old Caroline Leavitt (R) leads incumbent Chris Pappas (D). She’s promised to “restore our energy independence and again make the United States a leading exporter of energy.”
If South Florida turns redder, the Latino shift to the GOP is real. Every voting bloc is concerned about inflation and rising crime, but Hispanics were the most adversely affected by Democrat shut-down mandates. Service jobs (where they’re heavily employed) vanished when restaurants closed and hotels down-sized. Public schools were ordered closed, denying their kids in-class instruction and keeping moms at home.
Except in Florida, where the Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, re-opened schools and kept the tourism industry humming. Further, he hit back at “woke” culture that most Hispanics believe does nothing to advance their American Dream. South Florida is blanketed by Spanish-speaking conservative talk radio that’s overwhelmingly pro-assimilation, pro-church, and pro-family.
Florida’s 27th House District is 68.9% Hispanic, and Maria Salazar (R) now leads Annette Taddeo (D). DeSantis (R) is also leading Charlie Crist (D) by 6 points for governor in the district. Further south, in heavily Hispanic District 29, two Latinos vie for the US House seat – with Carlos Gimenez (R) ahead of Robert Asencio (D). If the GOP margin of victory is big in these districts, it portends a bad night for Democrats across America.
If battleground suburban districts flip to the GOP, white women have turned against Democrats for being soft on crime. In August, white suburban women favored Democrats by 12 percentage points; probably because of Dobbs. By the end of October, after an anti-crime ad blitz, they favored the GOP by 15 points (source: Wall Street Journal). That 27-point swing says women fear defunded police departments more than a defunded Planned Parenthood.
Two House races to track are Virginia 2, where Elaine Luria (D) is tied with former Navy pilot Jen Kiggans (R), and Pennsylvania 7, where Susan Wild (D) is fending off businesswoman Lisa Schiller (R). If both incumbent Dems lose, it means their pro-abortion pitch was no match for being soft on crime – and trouble for Democrats in every corner of America.
If big GOP upsets happen, it means the party has united. For the party of Reagan to become the party of DeSantis-Haley-Youngkin, then it must get past (and over) Donald Trump – and nothing unites like winning. If Boulduc (R) tops Hassan (D) for New Hampshire’s Senate seat, RINOs might re-focus on the “threat” of Joe Biden. Brigadier General Bolduc served 10 tours in Afghanistan, won two Purple Hearts, and REAL Republicans should respect that. If Zeldin (R) replaces Hochul (D) as New York’s governor, it means right-thinking centrists can live with a right-thinking conservative. So, look for the big upsets to know how America will vote in 2024.
If GOP winners look like the Party of Lincoln, it spells D-O-O-M for Democrats from top to bottom. Forget Trump. The GOP brains are the troika of Elise Stefanik, Kevin McCarthy, and Ronna McDaniel, who actively diversified the party; resulting in 80 women, 33 Hispanics, 28 Blacks, 13 Asians, and 3 Native Americans running just for the US House.
Track John James in Michigan 10, Jennifer Ruth Green in Indiana 1, Wesley Hunt in Texas 38, and the Latina trio in Texas 15 (De La Cruz), 28 (Garcia), and 34 (Flores). If all six win, it portends the end of identity politics (and the Democrat Party as we know it).
That’s your election-night guide. Follow these races on my Facebook page after 9:00 PM Tuesday, and read the mid-term recap on-line Wednesday at 6:00 PM or in your inbox Thursday at 5:00 AM.
