The only thing that might give Charlie Crist a chance of becoming governor would be DeSantis aggressively campaigning for him over the next two weeks. Translation: It’s over. And it’s going to be ugly.
Democrat consultant Evan Ross
TCG NOTE: Until Thursday (November 10), posts will lead with a midterm sneak peek; the latest consensus from polling averages and betting handicaps. See above!
If you’re not sure where Florida leans politically, you will in less than two weeks, because Democrats are already writing their own autopsy. Some fault the Crist and Demings teams for poor campaign coordination. Most say the “abortion” and “defense of democracy” messages elicited voter yawns. Right now, Election Day looks like Toolshed Tuesday because the latest poll (University of North Florida) has Val Demings (D) trailing Sen. Marco Rubio by 11 points, and Charlie Crist (D) trailing Gov. Ron DeSantis by 14 points. This should not surprise anyone.
Heading into these elections, Republicans are Florida’s governor, attorney general, secretary of state, 23 of 39 state senators, 76 of 120 state delegates, both US senators, and two-thirds of its representatives in the House. The polls suggest it’s about to get worse for Democrats – confirmed by real data.
The number of Democrats running un-opposed for Florida’s statehouse has dropped to 21 from 36 four years ago. The number of un-opposed Republicans has increased to 49 from 12 in 2018. And in school-board elections this summer, Republicans defeated 25 of 30 Democrat candidates. A large red flag was planted in Miami-Dade; now home to the largest GOP-controlled (and non-woke) school district in America.
Republican Oles!
Republican confidence is off the charts, because party registrations have grown by 714,698 since Governor DeSantis took office. Florida is now home to 5,259,406 registered Republicans and only 4,966,873 of those other guys. Since 2020, the GOP has added 90,000 registered Hispanics, while its rival has lost 17,000. DeSantis alone has raised $178 million in 2022, and Republican spending on fall TV ads ($50 million) has drowned out attack ads from Charlie Crist. Florida is today a reliable red state.
Give credit to Governor DeSantis, whose narrow victory over (now infamous) Andrew Gillum seems ages ago. His handling of the pandemic created loyal Republicans out of business owners and parents of school-age children. Standing up to woke corporations and flying illegal migrants to Martha’s Vineyard earned the trust of MAGA voters. The Governor is the generational talent the DNC fears, and his coattails are long.
The GOP rout is on. Through Thursday, 902,000 Republican “early” ballots were cast and only 875,000 Democrat (source: University of Florida). Reporters at the Tallahassee Democrat call a lead of 26,866 ballots “an ominous sign for Democrats” because of the election-day vote advantage (497,000 in 2020) the GOP has always enjoyed in Florida. As one Democrat operative told Politico, “It’s going to get ugly.”
Democrat Whimpers
Steve Schale runs a pro-Biden super PAC and can’t “see how we get to 50 percent” of the vote because his party has lost Hispanic and working-class whites. “For me, it’s a simple math question.” This was echoed by Democrat consultant Evan Ross: “I think Ron DeSantis will win Miami-Dade County” – and that spells D-O-O-M. Two internal party polls pinpoint the Miami-Dade problem:
- GOP approval of DeSantis is over 89% and Democrat approval of Crist is just 49%
- The heavily Hispanic 27th Congressional District has DeSantis leading Crist by 6 points
A few dozen Democrats showed up at a recent event in Jacksonville hosted by DNC chair Jaime Harrison to aid Demings and Crist: “We are ready to elect Crist. We are ready to elect Val Demings” – but Demings was a no-show, as were candidates for state agriculture commissioner and attorney general. The only Democrat running for statewide office to show up was Crist (source: Politico).
Democrat consultant Matthew Van Name was there and called it the way he saw it. “You had the gubernatorial candidate in one of the strongest Democrat swing counties, and you had 50 or 60 people show up?” Pitiful, like President Biden only visiting Florida twice since 2020; inviting state Sen. Jason Pizzo to moan, “What have we done? Not enough.”
Since a high of 5,315,954 registered Democrats in 2020, their ranks have thinned to 4,966,873 today. No wonder national donors are saying “no” to Florida Democrats in 2022. Without Trump on the ballot, Mike Bloomberg (D-NY) gave only $1.5 million. The Democrat Governors Association has given Crist only $685,000. Four state-office candidates have raised $131 million less than their Republican rivals.
Lower morale, fewer voters, and less money is no way to compete in America’s fastest growing state, which will – according to the Real Clear Politics poll averages – send only 8 Democrats to Congress in 2023, compared to 22 Republicans.
A Bright Red Future
Florida is about to supplant California as America’s Golden State. Having lived in Reagan’s California when it surpassed New York’s population and cultural influence, I feel the same vibe in DeSantis’ Florida. Back then and out there, Republicans said “no” to tax-and-spend Democrats, Reagan took it to DC, and 20 years of peace and prosperity ensued.
Right now and down here, Republicans have said “no” to woke-and-broke Democrats, DeSantis is poised to take it to DC, and another 20 years of peace and prosperity would ensure this is an American century. It can happen. But for now, Floridians want to ensure freedom and prosperity where they live.
COMING ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY – THE LIZ CHENEY AUTOPSY!
