Democrats can make up their lost ground if they talk about respect for work, value individual workers, and place government in a supporting rather than primary role. Day-to-day life needs to be at the forefront of Democratic messaging, not culture war topics like abortion or civil rights.
Rural Democracy Initiative
In keeping an eye on Democrat circles, I’ve observed a Tale of Two Novembers; the public face of happy talk in support of the status quo, and the private face of internal gloom-and-doom memos. The former looks like Biden crowing about $3.99 petrol. The latter are red-flag memos from Democrats to Democrats; notably, Democrats for Education Reform (DFER), the Rural Democracy Initiative, Ruy Texiera, and Mark Penn.
Democrats Now Trail on Education
The American Federation of Teachers (AFT) funded the DFER poll that found the GOP has charged ahead of Democrats on education in 62 swing districts that will decide control over the House in November; a 4-point lead with all voters in whom do you “trust to handle public education” and a 9-point advantage with parents. The poll found 66% want politicians to put race-based lesson plans on hold and focus on students overcoming “learning loss” from COVID shut-downs.
By a 28-point margin, voters said Democrats had their priorities backward. The “learning loss” is real, forcing AFT leader Randi Weingarten to acknowledge the problem this week. By a 32-point margin, voters said they want candidates to put teaching core subjects, like math and reading, ahead of anti-racism training. Big majorities also oppose trans athletes in girls’ athletics and teaching young students about gender identity or sexual orientation.
Last year, Republicans rode education to victory in Virginia. The latest numbers from Gallup prove that was no one-of fluke. Its longtime tracking poll found a near-record low (28%) of voters still have confidence in public schools. Asian, Black, and Latino voters prioritize public K-12 education more than white voters, and each group is now more likely to vote Republican than before (source: Washington Post).
Republicans Still Lead on the Economy
The Rural Democracy Initiative just gave progressive Democrats its strategy memo (The Winning Jobs Narrative), in which it confirmed the GOP is winning on the top issue of the coming election: the economy. “Polls show it over and over again. Focus groups tell strategists Republicans have long held an advantage over Democrats on this point, regardless of the economic reality.”
The memo’s executive summary states more voters trust the GOP on the economy, the Democrat economic message has lost Latinos, and most low-income families have tuned out the social-justice bullhorn. No surprise there, or in its five big findings:
- Voters don’t equate progressive tweets with real life
- Americans have respect for work
- Voters doubt Democrats value individual workers
- Americans want government in a supporting rather than primary role
- Voters put everyday life ahead of issues like abortion or civil rights
Because the memo advocates a 180-degree turn for America’s liberal party, it’s unlikely to be heeded. Read what one of the memo’s authors, Democrat Melissa Morales, told Time magazine: “Voters are still with us. We just have to show that we are with them.” The “show them” strategy is more AOC we just need better messaging than Bill Clinton pivot. Get a load of the memo’s “better messaging” advice.
Improve the tax message by saying “workers should not pay more in taxes than the billionaires” and no longer saying “the billionaires are bad.” Address income inequality by saying “the system is rigged” and no longer saying “the billionaires are making record profits.” Really? That’s as absurd as Gerald Ford’s WIN (Whip Inflation Now) lapel buttons.
The Latino Loss Is for Real
In 2020, after Catalist (a Democrat big-data firm) reported the GOP had picked up “a remarkable 16 points” with Latinos in four years, Democrat strategist Ruy Texiera began warning his party about the loss. He wrote Democrats “don’t realize how big the shift has been and how thoroughly it undermines their coalition.”
Texiera, who’s Hispanic, is critical of the “flawed assumption” made by his party; lumping Latinos in with “people of color” and thinking they too embrace racial activism. Latinos are, in fact, “patriotic, down to earth” voters focused on “jobs, the economy, health care, effective schools and public safety.” For this reason, Texiera concludes that “Democrats’ emphasis on social and democracy issues, while catnip to some socially liberal, educated voters, leaves many Hispanic voters cold.”
He is afraid because Latinos are “by far the largest group within the nonwhite population” and “their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share remains roughly constant.” His research found the Hispanic loss in 2020 entirely cancelled the “pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite growth.” The Latino loss was nationwide and among all Hispanic ethnicities, and it’s gotten worse this year.
Texiera says his party is now tied with the GOP for Latino support on current generic Congressional ballots (GOP up 2 points in one and down 3 points in the other). He’s sounding the alarm because Democrats are running far behind historic margins on the Congressional ballot, and President Biden’s Hispanic approval ratings range from only 19% to 32%.
A Party Can Hope, Can’t It?
All Democrat prognostications cede just one advantage to the GOP; the history of a new president’s party suffering in the next mid-term elections. Meanwhile, they see four mid-term advantages; (1) Republicans must defend seven more senate seats, (2) Trump “crackpots” got nominated, (3) the latest “good” jobs and inflation reports, and (4) legislative “victories” in Congress.
Further, the latest CAPS Harris poll raised liberal expectations, inspiring Harris chair Mark Penn to proclaim “the midterms are far from over” (he was chief strategist for Bill and Hillary Clinton). He’s optimistic because 18% of Biden disapprovers (The Group) still plan to vote Democrat in November. Within The Group, Democrats have 45% approval vs. 27% for the GOP, and Biden is favored by 27% vs. 17% for Trump.
How Penn is so bullish is unclear, because 90% of The Group say the US is now in recession, 80% say Biden is not helping the economy, 70% want him to put gas prices before climate change, 64% want him to open the Keystone Pipeline, and 60% say their personal finances are worse. Still, Penn believes his party is just so right it cannot lose.
The Midterms Are Far from Over
The mid-terms are 12 weeks away. Anything can happen, but what Democrats are whispering to Democrats makes it hard to bet against the out-party this year. To wit, YouGov reports Democrat enthusiasm “about voting in this year’s election” trails the GOP base by 10 points. So, how does a blue wave happen?
It would take some combination of Republican campaign negligence and great economic news – long shots if ever. Under RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, the GOP is no longer the middle-aged white men party, and its mid-term message is simple: improve schools, lower crime, and preserve good parenting. No need to over-think the Biden economy that still has voters worried (more on this next weekend). The YouGov August poll makes this clear.
Start with the Inflation Reduction Act. Only 12% of voters think it actually reduces inflation (Joe Manchin, architect of the bill, dropped 29 points in net favorable rating with West Virginia voters). And, when 93% of voters are worried about new taxes, 89% about crime, 88% about education, and 78% about immigration, Democrats know damn well why only 19% of voters say the US is heading in the right direction. They just can’t say it out loud.
