There will be a wave in the midterm elections. Not a red one, if Democrats educate voters about what is at stake: an election between an out-of-touch extremist radical MAGA Republican Party and a Democratic Party that’s fighting for practical solutions.
Maria Cardona (Democrat strategist in The Hill)
The whoosh of enthusiasm on the left (see quote above) this week was triggered by a generic congressional poll with Democrats in a “dead heat” with Republicans, Kansas voters upholding their high court’s protection of abortion, and a Fox News segment in which Mitch McConnell predicted “tight” senate races.
Turn off the TV set and return to your Mint Julep. Democrats have not erased the barriers that will hurt them in November. We’re in the August doldrums; no GOP ads, one hopeful bashing another in GOP primaries, and voters watching TV ads by incumbent Democrats. That all changes on Labor Day when the party unites, PAC money rolls in, ads familiarize voters with the Republican, and Democrat incumbents are yoked to Biden.
Generic congressional ballots favor Democrats 66% of the time, only for them to fall short in the fall election. It’s why polls missed on Clinton in 2016: they undercount conservatives. My 30-year study of generic polls and real elections predicts today’s tie will result in a 3-point GOP advantage in November.
In 2019, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled the “equal and inalienable natural rights” clause in Kansas’s constitution included a woman’s right to choose. In the Dobbs ruling by the US Supreme Court, Kansans got the green light to uphold that 2019 ruling; proving Dobbs didn’t end abortion in red states. Further, abortion is on too few swing district ballots to affect the 2022 midterms.
McConnell is the last Republican to ask about the prospects of Trump-endorsed Senate candidates. He’s unsure of how election deniers will fare against a hostile press, on top of being outside the America First populist movement. McConnell is more worried about what a populist wave means to his hold on power, clearly choking on the “leadership” question from Fox’s Brett Baier.
2022 nationally will be a repeat of 2021 Virginia: Democrats ran against Trump, GOP winners trailed in August, and the election was a referendum on Biden and his economy.
Democrats are still banking on the Trump Conundrum and – to varying degrees – GOP candidates must answer the “do you believe Joe Biden won the election” question or explain their “insurrection” position. The winning Virginia playbook from 2021 is now being shared nationally in RNC-hosted clinics (the playbook’s not so secret).
Do you think President Biden is illegitimate? I believe Joe Biden won the election, which is why I support election-integrity laws. Did you support the Capitol riots? I condemn violence, which is why we need to know what drove middling Americans to riot. My party rightly has questions about events surrounding the election.
The election process prevents a wave from building until after Labor Day. To wit, look at Virginia’s GOP last August. Gov. Youngkin trailed by 7 points and won by 2 points. L-Gov. Sears trailed by 8 points and won by 1.5 points. AG Miyares trailed by 11 points and won by a point. Un-decided voters were still 23% of the polls.
Everything you’ve read up to this point is political mumbo-jumbo. Democrats are doomed by a spiking Misery Index: rising crime, rising prices, unaffordable housing, and uncaring school boards. They will own that pain in November.
On top of that, a Democrat president distorts inflation and employment rates to hide how terribly he’s mismanaged the economy, aided by media buy-in. He will own this anger in November. Voters feel “in a recession” now, and fear the worst is yet to come.
Because jobs are a lagging indicator of recession, the White House talks up rosy jobs reports (+528,000 in July), and says little about 45-year low workforce participation rates (62.1) or 3 million post-COVID “early” retirees – because those folks quit looking for work. Add 2 million “normal” retirees: none are in the jobless calculus. That’s why unfilled jobs in July were 3.7 million higher than in July 2019 (and Biden says nothing).
The Fed wanted a “bad” jobs report in July, so Biden’s “good” news just means a 3/4-point rate hike in September. Inflation is hitting homes. Grocery prices are up 12.2%. Home-heating costs rose 30%. Apparel inflation (5%) is the highest since 1980. The CPIs for new and used vehicles are still at historic highs. Home prices are up 20% and, for the first time ever, median monthly rent has surpassed $2,000. The Fed must slow the economy – sooner rather than later.
And slowing down it is. A recent Retail Dive headline reads, “Inventory in 2022: Normal is still nowhere in sight.” I confirmed this with my go-to retail guru. “Retailers are stuck with bad inventory, left from panic-buying. Customers are not coming in, the inventory is not moving out, and they’re not optimistic.”
This truth will out between now and Election Day, when that reality drowns out Joe Biden’s happy talk. Petrol prices say it all.
The GOP made voters aware of Biden’s anti-petrol executive orders, and Biden blamed Putin for $5.00 petrol. AAA has reported high petrol prices forced 68% of Americans to drive less, reducing demand by 10%, and Biden claims his supply-side actions created $4.10 petrol.
There are 209 million drivers with cars in America, forced to carpool, postpone trips, combine errands, or delay major purchases (source: Autoweek). This means 209 million inconvenienced voters will vent their anger in November. It’s just that simple, because the popular-vote shift doesn’t have to be huge.
The game begins for real after Labor Day. Until then, it’s just a pre-game call-in show.
