If Democrats do not embrace a strategic shift to the political center, they risk historic defeats — worse than 1994 or 2010 — in this year’s midterm elections.
The Hill (3-13-2022)
Most legacy media aren’t reporting the unvarnished truth about the deep mid-term hole Democrats cannot un-dig. This is sad, because Americans have a right to be informed from first source material (internal party memos and polls), which points to a re-set of American politics not seen since FDR. Right now, Democrats dread, and Republicans expect, a tidal wave that ousts Democrats from city halls, state capitols and Congress.
America’s liberal party is 100% responsible for “the wave” coming from lost voting blocs and fearful households. Poll after poll shows the GOP has gained Hispanic support (35-55%) in battleground states, and how many voters (48-68%) blame Biden for higher prices in every state. It says everything when a president asks “what do you stand for” of the out-party – and they don’t respond. It says you’re so unpopular we can say nothing at all – and win!
I’m old enough to remember 1968, when the resentful put “peace sign” stickers where every voter would see them; so, don’t discount the numerous “I DID THAT” stickers on gas pumps or “Let’s Go Brandon” apparel popping up everywhere. The anger is palpable – and both parties know it.
Inside the Democrat Party: Dread
The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) just gave the DNC “The New Politics of Evasion” by Bill Galston and Elaine Kamarck, the analysts who wrote the “Politics of Evasion” in 1989. That’s the seminal document that exposed the electorate “myths” prolonging the DNC’s presidential losing streak. The truth was outed, Bill Clinton re-made the party’s agenda, and he won. The two realists have found 3 new electorate “myths” that doom the party in 2022.
- It’s a myth that “people of color” are bound by the common experience of discrimination or want to combine with liberal white activists to create a permanent Democrat majority. In fact, non-whites aren’t “fellow victims” who all think alike, working-class minorities tend to be more moderate than affluent white progressives, and Hispanics more closely resemble 20th-century Italians: family-oriented, religious, patriotic, focused on economic opportunity, and confident in merit-based success.
- It’s a myth that “economics trumps culture” because GOP cultural messages haven’t been drowned out by Pelosi’s ”transformational” economic plans. PPI found social, cultural and religious values are important to voters in both parties. And, by abandoning cultural norms, Democrats have become the party of rising crime, gender confusion, illegal immigration, and race-based lesson plans.
- Progressive ascendancy is a myth, because Democrat voters self-describe themselves as “liberal” and “moderate” and “conservative” in near equal amounts. In fact, Galston and Kamarck found only 9% support “democratic socialists” like Bernie Sanders.
Galston and Kamarck blame the “myths” for the party’s failed “base mobilization” theory that hasn’t produced a more progressive electorate. With a record turnout in 2020, Biden won, but the voter influx mostly helped Republicans down-ballot. Virginia 2021: great turnout, but college-educated suburbanites, Hispanics, and working-class whites put Republicans back in charge of the state. It gets worse.
On Wednesday, Democrat polling firm Impact Research identified the party’s Achille’s heel: rising gas prices in battleground states. 80% of these voters favor “continued natural gas production and export.” 72% say rising energy costs are “creating problems for their families.” Even worse, 80% of registered Democrats agree that “America’s energy future must include a mix of renewables and natural gas.”
Mind you, these are Democrats trying to shake some sense into their party’s leadership, albeit a little late. Back to the quote up top: historic defeats are increasingly inevitable.
A Blueprint for Failure
A single poll after the State of the Union suggested the nation was “rallying around” a war-time president. Bad early call, because four new polls spell mid-term doom, and Biden’s advice at last week’s DNC rally was vapid: “we are in the strongest position…what we have to do is sell it with confidence, clarity, conviction and repetition.” So, what is the President selling?
- Inflation? “I’m sick of this stuff….inflation is the fault of Putin.”
- Investment worries? “In this time of war, it’s not a time of profit.”
- Gas prices? “They’re going to go up. Can’t do much right now. Russia is responsible.”
Nothing like a good scolding to turn out the vote, right? Truth be told, Biden’s a feeble and forgetful orator. His executive orders alone halted US energy production and opened the border. His team managed the exit from Afghanistan and lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (never including Republicans from Congress). If the mid-terms are a referendum on the sitting president, Joe Biden’s words and deeds are a recipe for disaster.
Inside the GOP: Optimism
Because Biden stalled a recovering economy and took America to the brink of war, and state Democrats angered parents, the mid-terms are the GOP’s to lose. The latest RSLC (Republican State Leadership Committee) memo oozes confidence. “Biden is sinking Democrats at the state legislative level in key battleground states. The top issues in battleground states favor state Republicans, [whose] policy solutions are supported by the vast majority of voters.” RSLC polls identified four issues to win battleground-state voters:
- 96% are worried about the economy in general. The GOP has a 13-point “trust to manage” advantage.
- 95% are worried about the high cost of living. The GOP has a 10-point “trust to lower” advantage.
- 94% are worried about crime and violence. The GOP has a 12-point “trust to protect” advantage.
- 91% are angry at educators. The GOP has a 10-point “trust to protect parental control” advantage.
And what about Trump? GOP winners (Gov. Youngkin in Virginia) understand the MAGA voter. Accept Trump’s endorsement, because 250 of his 345 endorsed candidates have won (72.4%). But, walk in your own shoes, because the ex-president is not on the ballot. Let GOP idiots (Liz Cheney) run against Trump and lose, but support the man’s policies and win.
A Blue Print for Success
The GOP did something brilliant after Obama won in 2008: went granular with their time and treasure to oust Democrats from state and local governments. With about 62% of the seats, the GOP was able to blunt policies trickling down from Washington and build a farm team of viable candidates to run for national office, such as Missouri senator Josh Hawley. Right now, the RSLC plan for 2022 is hold or grow.
Job #1 is to keep GOP control of 30 lower chambers, 32 state senates and 28 governorships. Job #2 is to dilute Democrat-held legislatures. After flipping Virginia and gaining in New Jersey last November, the RSLC thinks it can flip four statehouses (CO, MN, NM and NV), and oust four Democrat governors (MI, MN, PA and WI). After far-left attacks on moderate Democrats, the RSLC expects to boost seats everywhere – even in California! It gets better.
In a normal off-year election, the newly elected president’s party loses 30 House reps and 4 senators, but those presidents weren’t polling like Joe Biden. The RSLC poll found a majority of voters – by an 11-point margin – want a GOP candidate to “act as a check and balance on President Biden.” Biden is so resented, many political veterans expect his single off-year loss to top Obama’s pair of off-year losses: 68 House seats and 13 Senate seats.
The GOP goal is 32 state trifectas (governor and both legislative chambers), super-majority in Congress, and continued in-roads in blue states. With a 6-3 conservative high court, that will force Biden to work with Republican governors and members of Congress. And THAT is a great off-year’s work!
