Arthur Herman is author, historian, professor, and a resident of Charlottesville, Virginia. His article is excerpted from the National Review.
The CG editor
A headline from the Australian scientific journal Cosmos in July blared: “Google trumped as physicists set a new quantum computing record.” China’s Zuchongzhi programmable quantum computer had surpassed Google’s best quantum computer in solving the complex problems that stump even the fastest supercomputers, such as factorizing large numbers.
China is on track to achieve what every cybersecurity expert fears: the creation of a large-scale quantum computer that is able to break into every public encryption system currently in existence.
China sees technologies, from quantum to AI and biotech, including advanced viral research, as tools in its bid for global hegemony. The U.S. and its allies will be crushed under its wheels. We are at the point where the lead is passing permanently to China. At stake is the future not only of the US economy but also of the economies of our allies in Europe and Asia.
Everyone knows the stakes and that the race is on, so who’s winning?
Look to how China is doing in five high-tech areas targeted for “strategic national science and technology projects” in its 14th Five-Year Development Plan. The plan calls for increasing R&D spending on these advanced technologies by 7% per year by 2025: a clear blueprint for Chinese domination of science and technology in the 21st century — a blueprint the USA still lacks.
The list doesn’t include 5G wireless technology or supercomputers, because China thinks it’s won those contests. Trump pushed a 5G ban against Huawei, got eight countries to join, and lost 90-plus countries to Huawei. Not good, and China tops the list of global top-500 supercomputers, owning the “fastest” supercomputers. Thus, China has shifted to next-gen technology (machine learning and artificial intelligence).
In March, the U.S. National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence warned that China is poised to replace the U.S. as the world’s “AI superpower.” Adopting the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan in 2017, it aims to become the center of global innovation with government coordination, and investments worth $150 billion.
By March 2019, China had 1,189 AI firms, second only to the U.S. (with over 2,000 AI firms). But, China has added to that number, with most focused on AI applications that support China’s military and intelligence.
The second technology on the list is quantum. U.S. companies still hold a strong lead in quantum computing and quantum-computing patents. But, China dominates quantum communications and has more full-spectrum quantum patents. The Zuchongzhi computer’s prowess is a sign the U.S. lead in quantum computing is eroding.
Third on the list is semiconductors. The Chinese government is making serious efforts to close the gap with the goal of reaching 70 percent self-sufficiency by 2025. Buoyed by a booming market, China now produces 36% of the world’s electronics, and a July 2021 Semiconductor Industry Association report found that China is poised to be increasingly competitive in some key semiconductor market segments.
The money being poured into China’s semiconductor effort is staggering, starting in 2014 with $21 billion in state-backed financing. Today, China’s total investment easily dwarfs the $50 billion the Biden administration wants to sustain our faltering domestic semiconductor industry.
The fourth area on the list is brain–computer fusion tech: neurotechnologies with far-reaching implications for national security. The U.S. BRAIN Initiative was started in 2013 under the Obama administration with $6 billion in funding through 2025. While the China Brain Project will invest only $1 billion by 2030, its focus is on using brain–computer interfaces for military purposes.
The fifth area on its list covers genomics and biotech. COVID-19 came from a Wuhan bio-research lab. If it were part of a Chinese bioweapon strategy, it begs the question of whether COVID was simply a prelude to an even deadlier super-virus as a bioweapon.
The point is that these technologies have deep military implications, China’s military wants these to be weaponized, China’s ahead in the high-tech war, and the US continues to lose ground in this high-stakes contest. How did this happen?
Simple, China discovered how the US technologies won WWII, catalyzing an economic and technological revolution. It saw the Reagan revolution produce the innovations of the digital age; fast and cheap microchips and the Internet. Xi expects America to do a Soviet-style abdication after China dominates high-tech.
China enjoys a deep bench in STEM talent, compared with the U.S. Georgetown University reports that China’s Ph.D. graduates will almost double those in the U.S. by 2025. And, 80% of Chinese PHDs are in STEM. China has overtaken the US in patent filings. In 2020, China filed 68,720 patent applications, and the US filed 59,230.
Too bad China has a clear blueprint to win the high-tech war – while America’s education establishment is obsessed with “social justice” rather than STEM. What’s to stop China from moving ahead toward global hegemony?
