Having watched the newly elected for over sixty years, I’ve noticed statesmen (Reagan) work for the electorate, and politicians (Biden) work on re-election. In fact, Joe Biden went to work on making elections favorable to Democrats before his inauguration by not supporting conservative speech on big social media. That’s just one bet Biden made to neuter the GOP and cloud the minds of swing voters. He might be right, but he’ll probably be disappointed.
Big Bet # 1 – Discredit GOP trillions for reviving the economy by raining his trillions on Americans. Voters wanted fatter wallets, but America’s improving economy, coping with global scarcity, didn’t need so much fiscal stimulus. Since Biden took office, materials and merchandise are harder to procure, China GDP has grown 18.3%, and the deficit has sky-rocketed (by $991 billion through March). Don’t bet on a great US economy in November 2022.
Big Bet # 2 – Appease his party’s left wing by replacing carbon energy with the Green New Deal, killing energy exports and risking 10 million jobs in the fossil fuels industry. The University of Wyoming predicts 300,000 lost energy jobs by 2025 due to Biden’s cancellation of federal land leases. And, since he took office, gasoline prices have climbed from $2.38 to $2.95 per gallon (source: EIA). With 279 million gas-powered vehicles on US roads, look for pain but no gain by November 2022.
Big Bet # 3 – Retain black voters by defunding police and blaming systemic racism, risking safe inner cities that are losing working millennials that create safe streets. In 2020, 300,000 millennials left New York City and De Blasio cut $1 billion from the NYPD budget. The result: 54% more gun-shot victims and 20% more murders in 2021 (source: NYPD). Today, 86% of police departments report officer shortages (source: NPD) and 67% of voters oppose defunding police (Rasmussen). Democrats own this one.
Big Bet # 4 – Repeat 2020 election results by federalizing local elections and demonizing voter integrity laws. Biden knows ID-free elections help his party game the system and cries of voter suppression fire up his base. But, 75% of Americans support voter-ID laws (Gallup), The Washington Post reports H.R. 1 won’t pass the Senate, and NBC found 56% of all voters were already worried about election “fairness” last fall. To call the GOP base “fired up” right now is an understatement.
Big Bet # 5 – Move America left by packing the Supreme Court and granting statehood to DC and Puerto Rico. Non-Democrats see Biden’s motive: divided government and judicial restraint don’t allow radical ideas to become law fast enough. Where’s the mandate? Nowhere, when 65% of all voters (95% of GOP and 72% of independents) oppose packing the court, and only 51% of Democrats and 24% of Republicans support creating two new states.
There is no mandate – unless you’re a fire-breathing progressive like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She doesn’t care that just 80,000 “swing votes” elected Biden. In New York City, it’s easy to forget that Americans won’t rush toward “progressive” change (e.g. biological males competing in all-girl sports). It’s easy to forget 2,586 counties (85%) voted for Trump, or that ”swing states” and “battleground states” matter.
In a vast and diverse continental nation, many issues are narrowly decided in “swing districts” where voters don’t have a dog in the fight (e.g. Silicon Valley wants green energy and Pike County wants carbon-based energy). Swing districts and states ebb and flow: Trump barely beat Clinton in Wisconsin and barely lost to Biden in Georgia. Thus, if the economy falters in Wisconsin and crime soars in suburban Atlanta, Democrats will suffer in 2022.
Biden is sowing the seeds of upset, because he won as a centrist and veered left out of the gate. Swing voters wanted herd immunity and economic recovery – not new states and federalized elections. If Biden thinks Trump’s on the ballot in 2022, he is senile. Haven’t we seen this movie, in 2010 after Obama kept blaming Bush for “driving the car into the ditch” and veered too far left? Voters, especially in swing districts, won’t get fooled again.
